Today’s edition follows the site’s methodology: exact published selections, preserved price evidence, official results, explicit settlement arithmetic and dated corrections. The early archive remains unaudited because some historic prices—including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price on 20 September—cannot meet that standard. Its claimed cumulative profit is not carried forward as verified, and no replacement total is being invented.
Saturday audit: four wins from four settled singles
The 10 October article allocated €42 and left €8 unallocated. All four selections have settled. The table preserves the published line and price, then applies the relevant market rule to the official outcome.
Newly verified entries
| Published selection | Stake | Exact price evidence | Official result | Settlement | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska +7.5 vs Indiana | €10 | FanDuel −110 = 1.9091 | Indiana official game centre: Indiana 20–17 | Nebraska lost by 3, inside +7.5: win | €10 × 1.9091 = €19.09 | Verified |
| Missouri −3.5 vs Texas A&M | €12 | FanDuel −106 = 1.9434 | Missouri official box score: Missouri 27–6 | Missouri won by 21, clearing −3.5: win | €12 × 1.9434 = €23.32 | Verified |
| Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline vs Dallas Stars | €8 | FanDuel +126 = 2.2600 | NHL: Pittsburgh 2–1 after shootout | Two-way NHL moneyline includes overtime and shootout: win | €8 × 2.26 = €18.08 | Verified |
| Cleveland Guardians moneyline vs Chicago White Sox | €12 | SportsLine −138 = 1.7246 | MLB: Cleveland 2–0 | Cleveland won: win | €12 × 1.7246 = €20.70 | Verified |
Saturday arithmetic: settled stakes €10 + €12 + €8 + €12 = €42.00. Returns €19.09 + €23.32 + €18.08 + €20.70 = €81.19. Net = €81.19 − €42.00 = +€39.19. Record 4–0; sample size n=4; ROI = €39.19 ÷ €42.00 = 93.31%. The €8 held back was not a stake and is excluded from settled-stake ROI.
Running audited ledger
| Date | Selection | Stake | Return | Outcome | Evidence trail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund moneyline | €9 | €0.00 | Loss | Price, result and 10 Oct time correction |
| 9 Oct | West Ham moneyline | €8 | €0.00 | Loss | Price and result audit |
| 9 Oct | Iowa +2.5 | €9 | €18.00 | Win | Price and result audit |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska +7.5 | €10 | €19.09 | Win | Verified above |
| 10 Oct | Missouri −3.5 | €12 | €23.32 | Win | Verified above |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline | €8 | €18.08 | Win | Verified above |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians moneyline | €12 | €20.70 | Win | Verified above |
Verified subtotal only: seven settled selections, record 5–2, stakes €68.00, returns €99.19, net +€31.19, ROI 45.87%. This starts with the price-verifiable 9 October entries and is not a substitute total for the unaudited early archive.
Unverified, pending, void and corrections
| Classification | Entries | Treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Unverified price | Florida State +3.5 (€9, recorded 1.95, loss); Atlanta Dream moneyline (€7, recorded 2.30, win); Golden State Valkyries +4 (€8, recorded 1.93, win) | Visible in the 10 October audit, but excluded from verified P/L because the exact published prices are not preserved by the linked evidence. |
| Pending | None | No unsettled entry carried into today. |
| Void | None | No stake returned under void rules. |
| Dated corrections | 10 Oct: Dortmund’s 9 Oct event time corrected from 19:30 to 19:45 Ireland time. | Original selection and stake remain unchanged. |
Sunday card: five singles, €42 allocated and €8 held back
Prices were observed at 06:02 IST on 11 October 2026. BetVictor’s event pages separately state when their displayed odds were correct; those timestamps are retained below. American prices are converted exactly before rounding the displayed decimal to four places. Potential return is stake × unrounded decimal odds, rounded to the nearest cent. Prices can move before the event.
| Event time (Ireland) | Selection | Stake | Provider, market and source | Decimal | Potential return | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Hull City vs Everton — under 2.5 goals | €9 | BetVictor 31/40; source says odds correct 14:30, 9 Oct | 1.7750 | €15.98 | 56.34% |
| 16:30 | Manchester City moneyline at Liverpool | €9 | BetVictor 7/5; source says odds correct 13:00, 9 Oct | 2.4000 | €21.60 | 41.67% |
| 21:05 | Los Angeles Chargers moneyline vs Denver Broncos | €6 | FanDuel Sportsbook +154 | 2.5400 | €15.24 | 39.37% |
| 22:00 | Washington Capitals moneyline vs Seattle Kraken | €8 | FanDuel Sportsbook −220 | 1.4545 | €11.64 | 68.75% |
| 23:00 | New York Rangers moneyline vs Vancouver Canucks | €10 | FanDuel Sportsbook −255 | 1.3922 | €13.92 | 71.83% |
Hull City–Everton under 2.5 goals — €9 at 1.7750
Case: the event-specific BetVictor preview says Hull had yet to concede at home, while under 2.5 goals had landed in Everton’s previous three league matches. The Premier League match page confirms the fixture. That profile favours a lower-event game more than either side’s moneyline. Counterargument: the same preview lists defensive absences and notes both teams scored in two of the last three head-to-head meetings; the under trend is also a small sample. The required hit rate is 56.34%. This is an editorial reading of current form, not a calibrated probability estimate or a measured-edge claim.
Manchester City moneyline at Liverpool — €9 at 2.4000
Case: BetVictor’s event page records Manchester City’s six-match winning sequence against Liverpool’s still-strong but less perfect run. Liverpool’s official fixture update confirms the 16:30 start, while Reuters reports Liverpool will be without Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo. At 2.40, the price asks City to win more than 41.67% of the time. Counterargument: Liverpool are at Anfield and unbeaten, City’s Phil Foden is suspended, and one match can overwhelm short-term form. The away venue and personnel uncertainty cap the stake. This is not labelled value because no independently calibrated win probability is available.
Los Angeles Chargers moneyline vs Denver — €6 at 2.5400
Case: FanDuel’s event page gives Denver a 53% model win probability, implying 47% for the Chargers. That is above the market break-even threshold of 39.37%. The Chargers’ official game guide confirms the 13:05 Pacific kick-off, which converts to 21:05 in Ireland. Counterargument: the final Chargers injury report rules out seven players, including Joe Alt, Derwin James Jr. and Quentin Johnston, with Ladd McConkey questionable. The model may not fully reflect that final roster damage, and Los Angeles enter 0–4. Because a single model is not an independently calibrated probability forecast, the apparent difference is not presented as a proven edge; the stake is the card’s smallest.
Washington Capitals moneyline vs Seattle — €8 at 1.4545
Case: the Capitals’ official preview lists Washington at 3–1 and seeking a homestand sweep after wins over Pittsburgh and the Rangers. FanDuel’s event page projects Washington at 69.4% against a 68.75% market threshold. Counterargument: Seattle are 3–2, the price is short, and the model exceeds break-even by only 0.65 percentage points—well inside ordinary estimation error and goalie uncertainty. That narrow difference is not robust evidence of value; it supports only a controlled stake.
New York Rangers moneyline vs Vancouver — €10 at 1.3922
Case: FanDuel’s event page lists the Rangers at 4–2, Vancouver at 2–4 and a 79.5% model probability for New York, while the price breaks even at 71.83%. The Rangers’ official schedule page confirms Vancouver at 18:00 Eastern, or 23:00 in Ireland. Counterargument: New York are on the second leg of a back-to-back after a 3–1 loss in Washington, and a 1.3922 favourite offers little compensation for fatigue, lineup changes or goaltending variance. The model figure is context, not a validated edge estimate.
Worked lesson: a model gap is only as good as its probability
The Chargers’ +154 converts to 2.54 decimal, so break-even is 1 ÷ 2.54 = 39.37%. Using the page’s 47% complementary model probability, expected profit per €1 would be (0.47 × 2.54) − 1 = €0.1938. For Washington at −220, decimal odds are 1 + 100/220 = 1.4545 and break-even is 68.75%; using 69.4%, the calculation is (0.694 × 1.4545) − 1 = only €0.0095 per €1.
Neither number is a licence to call the selection value. If final injuries make the Chargers’ true probability eight percentage points lower, the first sign reverses. A one-point miss would reverse Washington’s. Market comparison is useful, but probability error can dominate the arithmetic—especially when a model may predate final lineup information or has not been independently calibrated for today’s conditions.
Bankroll check
Stakes: €9 + €9 + €6 + €8 + €10 = €42. Unallocated: €8. Total: €42 + €8 = €50. If all five singles win, potential returns are €15.98 + €21.60 + €15.24 + €11.64 + €13.92 = €78.38. Adding the €8 not staked gives a fictional closing balance of €86.38, or +€36.38 for the day. Each single settles independently.
18+ | Fictional editorial simulation only. No real bankroll is being wagered. This is educational analysis, not a recommendation to gamble. If you choose to gamble, only stake money you can afford to lose, and never chase losses. Read the full methodology, settlement and corrections policy.