Today’s edition uses only three singles: €26 of the fictional €50 bankroll is allocated, with €24 left unallocated. The card spans college football, NHL and MLB, but it does not force extra selections where the evidence or price cushion is weak.
Prices were observed at 05:00 Ireland time (IST) on Wednesday, 14 October 2026. They can move. Event times below are in Ireland time. This edition follows the site’s published methodology: exact recorded prices, item-level results, explicit uncertainty and dated corrections. The early archive remains unaudited; the assumed 1.89 Kansas City Chiefs price from 20 September is not included in the verified total.
Tuesday’s results: 1–1 settled, one pending
| Selection | Stake / odds | Official outcome | Settlement | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU +2.5 at Jacksonville State | €10 @ 2.00 | Jax State won 27–24 | Loss; FIU lost by 3 | €0.00 |
| New York Islanders moneyline v Vancouver | €8 @ 1.4878 | Islanders won 3–2 | Win | €11.90 |
| Edmonton Oilers moneyline at Los Angeles | €12 @ 1.7692 | Official NHL game record not final at cutoff | Pending | Pending |
Settled arithmetic: €10 + €8 = €18 settled stakes; €0.00 + €11.90 = €11.90 returned; settled net = –€6.10. Edmonton’s €12 stake and possible €21.23 return remain pending and are excluded from both Tuesday’s settled total and the verified running record. This is a cutoff, not a guess at the late result.
Transparent running record
Verified settled sample: 17 singles, 11 wins and 6 losses. Stakes €158.00; returns €205.54; fictional net +€47.54; ROI on verified stakes 30.09% (€47.54 ÷ €158.00). The still-pending Edmonton selection is excluded. This is a small, high-variance sample and is not a forecast.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Recorded odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | L | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | L | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | W | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | W | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | W | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | W | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | W | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | L | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | W | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | L | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | L | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | W | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | W | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | W | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | W | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | L | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | W | €11.90 |
| Verified total | €158 | n=17 | 11–6 | €205.54 | |
The first 15 rows and their source trail are preserved in the 13 October audit. Today adds only the two officially settled 13 October selections; it does not retroactively alter earlier entries.
Unverified, pending, void and corrections
| Status | Entry | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Unverified | Florida State +3.5, €9, recorded 1.95, loss | Preserved evidence showed -108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Unverified | Atlanta Dream moneyline, €7, recorded 2.30, win | Exact contemporaneous price evidence was not preserved. |
| Unverified | Golden State Valkyries +4, €8, recorded 1.93, win | Later evidence showed +4.5 rather than the exact published +4 line. |
| Pending | Edmonton Oilers moneyline, €12 @ 1.7692, 13 Oct | The official NHL record was not final at the publication cutoff; possible return €21.23. |
| Void | None | No verified entry has been voided. |
| Correction logged 12 Oct | Dortmund event time from 9 Oct | Corrected from 19:30 to 19:45 Ireland time; selection, stake and result unchanged. |
The unverified items, the pending Edmonton entry and the early archive are excluded from the €158.00/€205.54 verified calculation. No replacement total is invented.
Wednesday’s €50 challenge card
| Event (Ireland time) | Selection | Provider and exact market | Stake | Decimal odds | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State at Missouri State 00:30 Thu | Kennesaw State moneyline | FanDuel, full-game moneyline, -154 | €10 | 1.6494 | €16.49 |
| Montréal Canadiens at Washington Capitals 00:30 Thu official listing | Canadiens moneyline | FanDuel, full-game moneyline, +112 | €8 | 2.12 | €16.96 |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers 01:00 Thu | Brewers moneyline | FanDuel, full-game moneyline, +150 | €8 | 2.50 | €20.00 |
| Allocated | €26 | Unallocated: €24 | Max returns: €53.45 | ||
Bankroll check: €10 + €8 + €8 + €24 unallocated = €50. If all three singles win, returns are €16.49 + €16.96 + €20.00 = €53.45. Adding the untouched €24 gives €77.45, a maximum card gain of €27.45.
1) Kennesaw State moneyline — €10 at 1.6494
The timestamped FanDuel market snapshot recorded Kennesaw State -154 and Missouri State +128 at 04:00 UTC/05:00 IST. Conference USA’s official preview confirms the 18:30 CT kickoff, 00:30 Thursday in Ireland, and lists both teams at 1–4.
The case is comparative rather than reputational. Conference USA reports that Kennesaw produced 411 yards in its league opener, including 293 passing yards, while its rushing output has risen to 157 yards per game over the last two weeks and quarterback Rickie Collins has completed more than 70% of his passes in consecutive games. FanDuel’s event page lists Kennesaw at 22.6 points scored and 23.4 allowed per game, versus Missouri State at 21.8 scored and 32.4 allowed, and cites a 66.2% numberFire win projection.
Threshold and uncertainty: 1.6494 requires a 60.63% win rate. My editorial estimate is 63%, deliberately below the cited projection because both teams are 1–4, Kennesaw is away and the sample is only five games. Missouri State linebacker Jared Lloyd leads the FBS at 12 tackles per game, a real counterweight if Kennesaw’s offensive improvement stalls. I found no current official availability report that could support a player-specific injury adjustment, so none is made.
2) Montréal Canadiens moneyline — €8 at 2.12
The timestamped FanDuel snapshot recorded Montréal +112 and Washington -134 at 04:00 UTC/05:00 IST. The official NHL schedule lists Canadiens at Capitals for 19:30 ET, which converts to 00:30 Thursday in Ireland. The odds feed showed 19:40 ET as its event time, likely reflecting expected puck drop; the official scheduled time is used here and the ten-minute discrepancy is disclosed rather than silently harmonised.
FanDuel’s event page lists Montréal at 3–2–1, Washington at 3–3 and cites a 61.3% numberFire probability for the Canadiens. I do not adopt that number wholesale: it is far from a market making Washington the favourite. My 54% editorial estimate applies a large haircut for Washington’s home ice, uncertain goaltending and a six-game sample.
At 2.12, break-even is 47.17%. The case is that Montréal’s early results and the external projection can justify a small underdog position, not that 61.3% is known truth. The strongest counterargument is the market itself: Washington is -134 at home, and one goaltending swing can dominate a single NHL game. I could not verify final starting goalies or a current official injury report at the observation cutoff, so the €8 stake is intentionally limited and no injury edge is claimed.
3) Milwaukee Brewers moneyline — €8 at 2.50
The timestamped FanDuel snapshot recorded Milwaukee +150 and Los Angeles -178 at 04:00 UTC/05:00 IST. MLB’s official Game 3 preview confirms a 20:00 ET start, 01:00 Thursday in Ireland, with Milwaukee leading the series 2–0.
The same MLB preview identifies Robert Gasser for Milwaukee after a 2–0 record and 1.73 ERA across his last seven appearances, six of them starts. Blake Snell starts for Los Angeles and owns a 2.19 ERA in five 2026 starts at Dodger Stadium, but shoulder, elbow and groin issues limited his workload and he walked five in 3⅔ innings in his first postseason outing. Milwaukee’s bullpen has allowed a 0.31 ERA across 28⅔ postseason innings, while MLB reports no injury on the Brewers’ active roster. For the Dodgers, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are managing biceps/knee issues, although both remain dangerous and Ohtani is expected to start.
Threshold and uncertainty: 2.50 requires a 40.00% win rate. My editorial estimate is 44%, based on Milwaukee’s 2–0 series position, Gasser’s recent form and the relief gap, while still making the Dodgers a slight home favourite. The counterargument is formidable: Snell has been excellent at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles has won consecutive World Series titles, and postseason samples are tiny. That uncertainty keeps the stake at €8.
Worked lesson: remove the headline margin before comparing opinions
At -154, Kennesaw’s raw implied probability is 154 ÷ (154 + 100) = 60.63%. Missouri State at +128 implies 100 ÷ (128 + 100) = 43.86%. Together they total 104.49%, not 100%, because the market contains margin. Normalising gives a no-vig Kennesaw share of 60.63 ÷ 104.49 = 58.02%. My 63% editorial estimate is therefore being compared with both the 60.63% price threshold and the 58.02% two-way market baseline. The estimate can still be wrong; the calculation simply makes the disagreement visible and prevents “favourite” from being mistaken for “automatic bet.”
Researched but passed
Western Kentucky–Sam Houston was priced close to a coin flip, but the evidence pulled in opposite directions. The official WKU preview shows the Hilltoppers coming off a 34–13 win with 464 yards, while Conference USA notes Sam Houston’s top-four FBS pass defence. The projection favoured Sam Houston, but the recent form and two-sided negative American prices made the uncertainty too high for this card. Dallas +132 at Colorado was also passed: the cited model probability was effectively level with the 43.10% break-even threshold, leaving no useful cushion for model error.
Settlement and source notes
- Price observation: 05:00 IST, 14 October 2026. The named FanDuel snapshots were timestamped 04:00 UTC and sourced through The Odds API; each link identifies the event, market and price.
- American-to-decimal conversion: favourites use 1 + (100 ÷ absolute price); underdogs use 1 + (price ÷ 100).
- FanDuel house rules say US ice-hockey moneylines include overtime and shootouts, football match handicaps include overtime, and baseball extra innings count for settlement.
- Official outcomes come from league or team records. Pending events are not estimated or silently carried into the verified P/L.
- Returns are stake × decimal odds and rounded to the nearest cent.
18+ only. This is a fictional editorial simulation for analysis and entertainment. No real wager is placed, no outcome is guaranteed, and prices may change. If betting is legal where you live, use licensed operators, set hard limits and never chase losses. For help in Ireland, visit GamblingCare.ie.