Friday’s edition contains two separate singles: €18 of the fictional €50 ceiling is allocated across college football and the CFL, with €32 deliberately unallocated. The rest of the board did not clear the evidence, price and uncertainty checks below.
This edition follows the site’s published methodology: exact event and market identification, timestamped prices, official fixture and result sources, item-level settlement and visible corrections. The early archive remains unaudited. The assumed 1.89 Kansas City Chiefs price from 20 September is still excluded from the verified record.
Results update: Thursday finished 0–3
| Published selection | Stake / odds | Official final | Settlement | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays moneyline at Cleveland | €7 @ 2.10 | Guardians 3, Rays 2 | Loss | €0.00 |
| Seattle Seahawks moneyline at Denver | €9 @ 1.6849 | Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 (OT) | Loss | €0.00 |
| Edmonton Oilers moneyline vs Utah | €10 @ 1.7937 | Utah 4, Edmonton 2 | Loss | €0.00 |
Thursday arithmetic: €7 + €9 + €10 = €26 staked; all three full-game moneyline singles lost, so returns were €0.00 and the daily fictional net was –€26.00. No settlement rule or void adjustment was required.
Verified running record
Verified settled sample: 24 singles, 13 wins and 11 losses. Stakes €222.00; returns €246.77; fictional net +€24.77; ROI on verified stakes 11.16% (€24.77 ÷ €222.00). Thursday reduced the verified net from +€50.77 to +€24.77. This remains a small, high-variance sample, not a forecast.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Recorded decimal odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | L | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | L | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | W | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | W | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | W | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | W | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | W | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | L | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | W | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | L | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | L | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | W | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | W | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | W | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | W | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | L | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | W | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | W | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | L | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | L | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | W | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | L | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | L | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | L | €0.00 |
| Verified total | €222 | n=24 | 13–11 | €246.77 | |
The source trail for the first 21 rows remains in the 15 October audit. This edition appends the three official 15 October outcomes; it does not rewrite earlier selections or prices.
Unverified entries — excluded from P/L
| Entry | Preserved result | Reason excluded |
|---|---|---|
| Florida State +3.5, €9, recorded 1.95 | Loss | Preserved evidence showed -108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Atlanta Dream moneyline, €7, recorded 2.30 | Win | Exact contemporaneous price evidence was not preserved. |
| Golden State Valkyries +4, €8, recorded 1.93 | Win | Later evidence showed +4.5, not the exact published +4 line. |
Pending entries
None in the settled ledger. Friday’s two selections are an open card and will enter the ledger only after official results are final.
Void entries
None. No verified entry has been voided.
Corrections log
12 October: Dortmund’s 9 October event time was corrected from 19:30 to 19:45 Ireland time. The selection, stake and result were unchanged. 16 October: no new correction is required.
Friday’s €50 challenge card
The Coastal Carolina price was observed in the AgentBets FanDuel table at 06:00 Ireland time (UTC+1) on Friday, 16 October 2026. The Edmonton price was observed in its FanDuel table at 05:00 Ireland time. Prices can move; these timestamps preserve the quoted decision points.
| Event — Ireland time | Selection | Provider / exact market | Stake | Decimal odds | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina 01:00 Sat, 17 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | FanDuel price preserved by AgentBets; full-game moneyline -102 | €8 | 1.9804 | €15.84 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Edmonton Elks 02:30 Sat, 17 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | FanDuel price preserved by AgentBets; full-game moneyline -196 | €10 | 1.5102 | €15.10 |
| Allocated | €18 | Unallocated: €32 | Max returns: €30.94 | ||
Bankroll check: €8 + €10 + €32 unallocated = €50. If both singles win, returns are €15.84 + €15.10 = €30.94. Adding the untouched €32 gives €62.94, a maximum card gain of €12.94.
1) Coastal Carolina moneyline — €8 at 1.9804
The timestamped FanDuel odds table listed Appalachian State -118 and Coastal Carolina -102 at 05:00 UTC/06:00 Irish time. The official Appalachian State preview confirms a 20:00 ET kickoff—01:00 Saturday in Ireland—and reports starting quarterback Malachi Singleton as questionable. It also records Appalachian State at 3–2 and Coastal Carolina at 2–4.
The case for Coastal is venue, matchup history and turnover pressure: the official Coastal Carolina preview says the Chanticleers have won four straight in the series, including three straight at home, and lead the Sun Belt with 13 takeaways. The counterargument is substantial. Coastal’s 27–21 win over Marshall was helped by six turnovers, while Appalachian State owns the better record, eight defensive interceptions and a rushing matchup against a Coastal defense allowing 189.7 yards per game.
Threshold and uncertainty: -102 converts to 1.9804 and requires 50.50%. numberFire’s event model puts Coastal at 56%. My editorial estimate is a more conservative 54%, discounting the model for Appalachian State’s superior record, Coastal’s turnover-aided last result and uncertainty around the quarterback decision. That is a modest opinion gap, not proof of a measured edge, so the stake is €8.
2) Edmonton Elks moneyline — €10 at 1.5102
The timestamped FanDuel odds table listed Edmonton -196 and Winnipeg +162 at 04:00 UTC/05:00 Irish time. The official Elks schedule confirms a 19:30 MT kickoff, equivalent to 02:30 Saturday in Ireland.
The official Winnipeg preview lists the teams at 8–8 and 12–4 and notes Edmonton’s two earlier wins in the matchup, 23–18 and 22–19. Edmonton is also 7–1 at home, leads the CFL in scoring defence at 24.8 points allowed per game, and carries a +23 turnover differential, according to the event preview and odds analysis. Winnipeg’s recent touchdown-drive rate and questionable status around Brady Oliveira and Nic Demski add downside to the road case.
Threshold and uncertainty: -196 converts to 1.5102 and requires 66.22%. My editorial estimate is 69%: Edmonton’s full-season record, home split, defensive efficiency and turnover profile justify favouritism, but the earlier head-to-head margins were only five and three points. Winnipeg has playoff urgency, won last week and could improve if its questionable players are cleared. The 2.78-point opinion gap supports €10, not certainty.
Worked lesson: remove the bookmaker margin before comparing views
For Appalachian State -118, the raw implied probability is 118 ÷ 218 = 54.13%. Coastal -102 implies 102 ÷ 202 = 50.50%. Together they total 104.63%, an overround of about 4.63 points. Normalising the pair gives Coastal a no-vig market share of 50.50 ÷ 104.63 = 48.26%. That is not a “true” probability; it is only the market’s margin-adjusted split at this snapshot. The 54% editorial estimate disagrees with it, but uncertain inputs—especially Singleton’s status and whether Coastal can repeat its turnover advantage—are why the position remains small.
Researched but passed
- MLB, Rays at Guardians: the official MLB probable-pitcher page listed a 20:00 ET start and Cleveland’s pitcher as TBD, while the odds feed showed 18:00 ET. With a two-hour time conflict and an unresolved starter, no price was promoted into the card.
- NHL, Pittsburgh at Colorado: a 63.9% Colorado model estimate was below the 67.74% break-even rate at FanDuel -210. Pittsburgh +172 required 36.76%, also above the model’s 36.1%. Both sides were passed.
- NHL, Boston at Anaheim: the 52.2% Boston model estimate was below the 54.13% threshold at -118; Anaheim -102 required 50.50% against a 47.8% model estimate. Passed.
- College football: Memphis -260 required 72.22% against a 72.1% numberFire projection. Purdue -160 required 61.54% against a 57% projection, while Washington +130 required 43.48% against a 43% projection. No side cleared its quoted threshold.
Settlement and source notes
- American-to-decimal conversion: negative odds use 1 + (100 ÷ absolute price). Thus -102 becomes 1.980392… and -196 becomes 1.510204…, displayed to four decimals.
- Potential returns equal stake × recorded decimal odds and are rounded to the nearest cent.
- FanDuel’s published house rules state that settlement uses the official governing-body result and the odds accepted with the stake. This editorial ledger applies official full-game outcomes to the two fictional moneyline singles.
- Official outcomes will be added only after the league or team source is final. A postponed or unsettled item will remain pending or be marked void under the applicable rule; it will not be guessed.
18+ only. This is a fictional editorial simulation for analysis and entertainment. No real wager is placed, no outcome is guaranteed, and prices may change. If betting is legal where you live, use licensed operators, set hard limits and never chase losses. For support in Ireland, visit GamblingCare.ie.