Tuesday is a no-selection edition: €0 is staked and the full €50 fictional allocation remains unallocated. Football, college football, NHL and NBA availability were checked. Three priced favourites were more likely winners than their opponents, but each available price required a higher win probability than the event-specific model estimate. The NBA has no games scheduled today. Unallocated money is not a stake and is excluded from returns and ROI.
All times are Europe/Dublin (GMT). Sources were opened through 06:05 on 3 November 2026. The Barcelona price snapshot is timestamped 06:00 GMT; the Ohio and New Jersey snapshots are timestamped 05:00 GMT. Odds can move. This edition follows the site’s methodology: exact markets and timestamps, official event evidence, item-level settlement, explicit counterarguments, dated corrections and no carry-forward of the unaudited early archive.
First: settlement check for 2 November
The Monday edition published no selections: €0 was staked and €50 remained unallocated. There is therefore no event result to settle, no return to add and no change to the verified record. This is a checked non-entry, not a void or a loss.
| Previous edition | Selections | Staked | Returned | Ledger change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 November 2026 | None | €0.00 | €0.00 | €0.00 |
Verified running record
The verified subset now contains 45 settled singles: 23 wins and 22 losses; €387.00 settled stakes; €391.89 returns; verified net +€4.89; ROI 1.26%. Arithmetic: €391.89 − €387.00 = €4.89, and €4.89 ÷ €387.00 = 1.2636%, shown as 1.26%. Today has no pending selection. This audited subset starts on 9 October and excludes the unaudited early archive, including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price from 20 September.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Win | €15.10 |
| 17 Oct | Michigan −6.5 | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 17 Oct | Golden State Valkyries moneyline | €8 | 1.6849 | Win | €13.48 |
| 18 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €12 | 1.7407 | Win | €20.89 |
| 18 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €8 | 1.8929 | Win | €15.14 |
| 20 Oct | Colorado Avalanche moneyline | €8 | 1.9091 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 20 Oct | San Antonio Spurs moneyline | €10 | 1.8403 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6 | 1.6452 | Win | €9.87 |
| 23 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8 | 1.7752 | Win | €14.20 |
| 23 Oct | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 24 Oct | Arsenal moneyline | €6 | 1.4975 | Win | €8.99 |
| 24 Oct | Wisconsin moneyline | €8 | 2.35 | Win | €18.80 |
| 25 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €8 | 1.6369 | Win | €13.10 |
| 25 Oct | Manchester United moneyline, 90 min | €4 | 2.29 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Carolina Panthers moneyline | €7 | 1.6897 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline | €8 | 1.9434 | Win | €15.55 |
| 26 Oct | New York Rangers moneyline | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Dallas Stars moneyline | €6 | 1.8333 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | €10 | 1.7246 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 29 Oct | Boston Bruins moneyline | €6 | 1.9615 | Loss | €0.00 |
| Verified total | €387 | — | 23–22 | €391.89 | |
Unverified, pending and void
| Status | Selection | Stake | Recorded price/result | Why here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unverified | Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Unverified | Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous 2.30 source has not been recovered. |
| Unverified | Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not the recorded +4. |
| Pending | None | €0 | — | No open selection from today or an earlier verified edition. |
| Void | None | €0 | — | No void selections in the verified ledger. |
Today’s €50 allocation
| Selection | Stake | Price | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|
| No qualifying selection | €0.00 | — | €0.00 |
| Unallocated | €50.00 | — | Not at risk |
| Bankroll check: €0 staked + €50 unallocated = €50 | |||
Cross-sport screen: exact prices, thresholds and uncertainty
| Sport / event (Ireland) | Exact price evidence | Comparative reasoning and decision |
|---|---|---|
| UEFA Champions League Barcelona v Aston Villa 20:00 | Bovada Barcelona −345, decimal 1.2899, 90-minute match winner; 06:00 GMT snapshot across 18 books. UEFA lists the fixture in its 21:00 CET slot, which is 20:00 GMT. | Break-even is 77.53%. The Opta supercomputer gives Barcelona 72.0% across 10,000 simulations, below the threshold. The case for Barça is a free-scoring attack and home advantage; the countercase is Villa’s three wins from three and Barcelona’s 18-game Champions League run without a clean sheet. The price demands more certainty than the model supplies. No selection. |
| NCAAF Ohio Bobcats at Akron Zips 00:00 Wednesday | theScore Bet Ohio −550, decimal 1.1818, moneyline; 05:00 GMT snapshot across 17 books. Ohio’s official preview confirms 19:00 ET Tuesday, or 00:00 GMT Wednesday. | Break-even is 84.62%. Dimers estimates Ohio at 82.8%, below the threshold. Ohio are 6–2, unbeaten in MAC play and on a five-game winning streak; Akron have lost six straight. Those facts support Ohio as the likelier winner, but do not make an 84.62% requirement disappear. A spread is a different market and cannot be substituted for the rejected moneyline. No selection. |
| NHL Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils Official puck drop 00:38 Wednesday; odds metadata 00:40 | Hard Rock Bet New Jersey −145, decimal 1.6897, moneyline including overtime/shootout; 05:00 GMT snapshot across 20 books. The official Devils preview gives a 19:38 ET start, or 00:38 GMT Wednesday. | Break-even is 59.18%. Dimers estimates New Jersey at 53.4%, below the threshold. New Jersey have won five of six and Connor Hellebuyck has won both starts, but Edmonton are 11–2–2, average 4.20 goals and are chasing a three-game road sweep. The official injury list also shows absences on Edmonton’s side, but not enough to bridge a 5.78-point probability gap. No selection. |
| NBA availability check No games scheduled | The NBA’s official 2026–27 schedule announcement states that no games are scheduled for Tuesday 3 November (Election Day). | No event means no event-specific price, market, injury comparison or defensible selection. The league is excluded at the fixture stage rather than padded with a future game. No selection. |
Timing note: official competition and team sources provide the reader-facing event times. The NHL odds record uses 00:40 GMT while the official Devils preview says 00:38 GMT; both are retained rather than silently forcing agreement. All three prices are pre-event, named-book moneylines tied to timestamped event pages.
Worked lesson: “most likely” is not the same as “priced fairly”
For a negative American price of −A, decimal odds are 1 + 100 ÷ A and break-even probability is A ÷ (A + 100). Barcelona at −345 therefore converts to 1 + 100 ÷ 345 = 1.2899, and its break-even threshold is 345 ÷ 445 = 77.53%. Opta’s 72.0% estimate is 5.53 percentage points lower.
| Candidate | Model win probability | Price threshold | Expected return per €1 if model is exact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona −345 | 72.0% | 77.53% | 0.720 × 1.2899 = €0.9287 |
| Ohio −550 | 82.8% | 84.62% | 0.828 × 1.1818 = €0.9785 |
| New Jersey −145 | 53.4% | 59.18% | 0.534 × 1.6897 = €0.9023 |
Each favourite can be the most likely winner and still fail the price test. If the cited model estimates were perfectly calibrated, the nominal expected losses would be about 7.13 cents, 2.15 cents and 9.77 cents per €1 respectively. That does not prove the models are correct; it shows why the burden of proof is on taking the price. Ohio is the closest pass, but its 1.82-point shortfall leaves no documented cushion for model error, late news or line movement. The transparent decision is to keep all €50 unallocated.
18+ only. Fictional editorial simulation, not betting advice. No real wagers are placed. Odds move and may be unavailable in your location. Gambling can cause harm; never chase losses and use licensed operators only. See the full Daily €50 Challenge methodology, audit and corrections policy.