Saturday, 17 October 2026. Today’s edition follows the site’s published methodology: exact prices and observation times, official fixture/result evidence, item-level settlement, and no substitute totals when evidence is missing.
Editorial position: only two singles clear today’s evidence threshold. €16 is allocated and €34 is left unallocated. Prices were observed at 05:00 Ireland time (04:00 UTC) on 17 October and can move.
Friday audit: one settled, one still pending
The 16 October card had two selections. Coastal Carolina moneyline is a confirmed loss: the official Coastal Carolina recap records Appalachian State 35, Coastal Carolina 32. Settlement: €8 stake, €0.00 return, net −€8.00.
The Edmonton Elks moneyline (€10 at 1.5102) remains pending here. A readable official final was not available through the source trail at audit time, so secondary reports are not being promoted into the verified ledger. Friday’s card therefore remains only partly settled.
Verified record
Verified sample: 25 settled singles; 13 wins, 12 losses. Stakes €230.00; returns €246.77; verified net +€16.77; ROI 7.29% (€16.77 ÷ €230.00). The early unaudited archive—including the assumed 1.89 Chiefs price on 20 September—is excluded.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina ML | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
Pending entries
| Date | Selection | Stake | Recorded odds | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Pending official-result verification |
Unverified entries
These are preserved exactly as audit exceptions and remain outside every verified total.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Recorded odds/result | Why unverified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early archive | Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded price |
| Early archive | Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous price evidence missing |
| Early archive | Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not +4 |
Void entries and correction log
Void: none. Dated corrections: 12 October—Dortmund’s 9 October event time corrected from 19:30 to 19:45 Ireland time. 17 October—no historical selection was rewritten; Coastal was appended as a settled loss and Edmonton remains pending.
Today’s €50 allocation
| Event (Ireland time) | Single | Provider / observed price | Stake | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State at Michigan — 20:30 | Michigan −6.5 point spread | FanDuel via OddsAPI, −105 / 1.9524 at 05:00 | €8 | €15.62 |
| Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries — 20:30 | Golden State moneyline | FanDuel via OddsAPI, −146 / 1.6849 at 05:00 | €8 | €13.48 |
| — | Unallocated balance | — | €34 | €34.00 retained |
Check: €8 + €8 + €34 = €50.00. If both singles win, betting returns are €15.62 + €13.48 = €29.10; adding the untouched €34 gives €63.10, a maximum daily gain of €13.10. These are separate singles, not an accumulator.
1) Michigan −6.5 vs Penn State
Event: 20:30 Ireland time (15:30 ET), Michigan Stadium. Price: FanDuel −105, decimal 1.9524, observed through the OddsAPI-backed FanDuel NCAAF board at 05:00 Ireland time. Stake: €8. Potential return: €8 × 1.9524 = €15.6192, rounded to €15.62.
The market’s break-even rate is 1 ÷ 1.9524 = 51.22%. My working probability is 53%, deliberately below the Dimers simulation estimate of 53.8% to cover −6.5. The official Michigan notes report a 9–4 home record, the nation’s third-ranked total defense (241.4 yards allowed per game) and fifth-ranked pass defense (146.8). That profile fits a favorite trying to create margin rather than merely survive.
Counterargument and uncertainty: Michigan’s own notes say four of five games were decided in the final minute and identify offensive explosiveness as unfinished work. The official Penn State notes show the Nittany Lions have a dependable kicker and that four of the last seven meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer. A one-score Michigan win loses this ticket. The estimated advantage over break-even is only 1.78 percentage points, so the stake stays small; this is an opinion at a recorded price, not a claim of a measured edge.
2) Golden State Valkyries moneyline vs Atlanta Dream
Event: 20:30 Ireland time (12:30 PT), Chase Center. Price: FanDuel −146, decimal 1.6849, observed through the OddsAPI-backed FanDuel WNBA board at 05:00 Ireland time. Stake: €8. Potential return: €8 × 1.6849 = €13.4792, rounded to €13.48.
Break-even is 1 ÷ 1.6849 = 59.35%. My working probability is 60%, close to the Dimers 59.9% home-win simulation. The official Valkyries preview says Golden State swept the regular-season series 3–0 and led the league in regular-season defensive rating. Home court and the matchup history narrowly support the moneyline.
Counterargument and uncertainty: the same official preview says Atlanta won nine of its last 10 and entered the Finals unbeaten in the playoffs; its postseason defense and rebounding have improved. Reuters also reported Allisha Gray questionable after hand surgery, but uncertain availability can move both the true probability and the price. The working estimate clears break-even by only 0.65 percentage points. That is fragile, so the stake is €8 and no “value” label is attached.
Why the other sports were passed
The screen covered college football, WNBA, NHL and MLB. The NHL board produced no side whose independently checked win estimate cleared its price threshold; the official Capitals–Devils roster snapshot also left meaningful lineup uncertainty. In MLB, the Rays–Guardians price was close to even, while Friday’s postponement shifted Game 4 to Saturday and complicated pitching-use assumptions. College-football alternatives such as Army–FAU and Duke–Boston College had thinner or conflicting probability support. No bet is preferable to forcing the number of selections or sports.
Worked lesson: pending results can swing the headline
The verified ledger currently shows +€16.77 on €230 settled stakes. Edmonton must not be counted yet. If its €10 moneyline at 1.5102 is later verified as a win, its return is €15.10 and the ledger would become €261.87 returns on €240 stakes: +€21.87, 9.11% ROI. If verified as a loss, it would become €246.77 on €240: +€6.77, 2.82% ROI. Those are conditional illustrations, not results. Keeping the entry pending prevents an unsupported score from silently changing the record.
Source and settlement note
- Official fixture/team context: Michigan, Penn State, and Golden State Valkyries.
- Price evidence: event-specific NCAAF and WNBA boards, labeled as FanDuel prices sourced from OddsAPI and time-stamped 04:00 UTC / 05:00 Ireland.
- Settlement will use the recorded market and official final result. Point-spread bets require the selected side’s adjusted score to finish ahead; moneyline bets require the selected team to win. A void pushes stake back and is excluded from win/loss counts and profit.
- Prices are snapshots, not promises. Do not substitute a later price into this record.
18+ editorial-simulation disclaimer
18+ only. This is a fictional editorial bankroll simulation for analysis and record-keeping, not financial advice and not a claim of guaranteed profit. No real wager is placed by this site. If you choose to bet, use a licensed operator, verify the current line and rules yourself, set hard limits, and never chase losses. Help and responsible-gambling information are available from GamblingCare.ie.