Friday’s card: €8 on Boston Celtics moneyline at 1.7752 and €8 on over 6.5 runs in Rays–Brewers at 1.9524; €34 unallocated. Two selections survived today’s source, price and probability checks. They are separate fictional singles, not an accumulator.
All event times are Europe/Dublin. The odds snapshot was observed at 05:00 on 23 October 2026 (04:00 UTC) and can move. This edition follows the site’s methodology: contemporaneous price evidence, official event information, explicit uncertainty, item-level settlement and no reconstructed total from the unaudited early archive.
First: settle the 22 October card
Thursday’s published edition recorded one selection: €6 on Chicago Bears moneyline at 1.6452. Chicago beat New England 30–24. The official NFL game centre identifies the fixture and final status; Reuters’ dated game report supplies the final score.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6.00 | 1.6452 | Win, 30–24 | €9.87 | +€3.87 |
Settlement arithmetic: €6 × 1.6452 = €9.8712, rounded to €9.87; €9.87 − €6 = +€3.87.
Verified running record
The verified subset now contains 33 settled singles, 18 wins and 15 losses; €300.00 settled stakes; €321.25 returns; verified net +€21.25; ROI 7.08%. Arithmetic: €321.25 − €300.00 = €21.25, and €21.25 ÷ €300.00 = 7.0833%, shown as 7.08%. It starts on 9 October and excludes the unaudited early archive, including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price recorded on 20 September. The sample is small and is not a forecast.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Win | €15.10 |
| 17 Oct | Michigan −6.5 | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 17 Oct | Golden State Valkyries moneyline | €8 | 1.6849 | Win | €13.48 |
| 18 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €12 | 1.7407 | Win | €20.89 |
| 18 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €8 | 1.8929 | Win | €15.14 |
| 20 Oct | Colorado Avalanche moneyline | €8 | 1.9091 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 20 Oct | San Antonio Spurs moneyline | €10 | 1.8403 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6 | 1.6452 | Win | €9.87 |
| Verified total | €300 | — | 18–15 | €321.25 | |
Unverified, pending and void
| Status | Selection | Stake | Recorded price/result | Why here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unverified | Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Unverified | Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous 2.30 source has not been recovered. |
| Unverified | Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not the recorded +4. |
| Pending | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8 | 1.7752 / Pending | Today’s selection; settle after the official result. |
| Pending | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8 | 1.9524 / Pending | Today’s selection; settle under standard full-game total rules. |
| Void | None | €0 | — | No void selections in the verified ledger. |
Today’s €50 allocation
| Event (Ireland) | Selection | Book / exact market and price | Observed | Stake | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks at Boston Celtics 00:00 Sat 24 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | Pinnacle −129 = 1.7752 | 05:00 Fri | €8 | €14.20 |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers 01:00 Sat 24 Oct | Full-game total over 6.5 runs | FanDuel −105 = 1.9524 | 05:00 Fri | €8 | €15.62 |
| Unallocated | €34 | Not at risk | |||
| Bankroll check | €8 + €8 + €34 = €50 | ||||
The AgentBets multi-book board is timestamped 04:00 UTC and records both exact prices above. Its NBA feed labels the matchup 19:10 EDT, while the official NBA game page gives 19:00 ET; this article uses the official start time, 00:00 in Ireland. The official MLB preview confirms World Series Game 1 at 20:00 ET, or 01:00 in Ireland.
Selection 1: Boston Celtics moneyline
Pinnacle’s −129 converts to 1 + (100 ÷ 129) = 1.7752. The implied break-even rate is 129 ÷ 229 = 56.33%. A Dimers model reported by MassLive gives Boston a 59.9% win probability after 10,000 simulations and projects 113–110. Against this observed price, that model estimate is 3.57 percentage points above break-even.
The health picture is relatively clean for the core rotations. The NBA’s official 00:30 ET injury report lists Boston’s Devin Carter out with illness; New York’s listed names are two-way players marked questionable for G League reasons. Both clubs are 0–1: Boston lost 121–113 to Detroit and New York lost 106–100 to Philadelphia. Home court and the model’s modest probability cushion justify a small stake, not a declaration of certainty.
Counterargument and uncertainty
One game is almost no current-season sample, and the model’s inputs and calibration are not independently visible. New York is the reigning champion and took three of four regular-season meetings last season, according to the same preview. A 3.57-point model margin can disappear with a small forecast error or late lineup news. Settlement is standard NBA moneyline including overtime: €8 × 1.7752 = €14.2016, rounded to €14.20 if Boston wins; otherwise €0.
Selection 2: Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs
FanDuel’s −105 converts to 1 + (100 ÷ 105) = 1.9524, implying a break-even rate of 105 ÷ 205 = 51.22%. A SportsLine model reported by CBS Sports simulated the game 10,000 times, projected 8.3 runs and put the over 6.5 outcome at 68%. That is far above the observed price threshold, but it remains one opaque third-party model rather than a known true probability.
The case has support beyond the headline number. MLB’s official preview says Tampa Bay is 24–9 in Nick Martinez starts including the playoffs; it also notes Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski has not completed five innings in either postseason start. Shorter starter outings expose more relievers and more plate appearances against changing matchups.
Counterargument and uncertainty
The under case is substantial. Misiorowski led MLB’s regular season with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, a 0.80 WHIP and a .157 opponents’ average. Martinez has allowed only three runs in nine postseason innings, and Milwaukee’s bullpen owns a 1.33 postseason ERA. The announced lineups were still described as likely rather than final when checked, and a low total is sensitive to one pitching change or weather update. The large model gap therefore earns only €8. Settlement is the listed full-game total including extra innings under standard sportsbook rules: €8 × 1.9524 = €15.6192, rounded to €15.62 if the teams combine for seven or more runs; six or fewer returns €0. A push is impossible at 6.5.
What was screened and passed over
| Sport / official fixture | Candidate price | Probability test | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF: Duke at Virginia, 00:00 Sat ACC | Virginia ML, Pinnacle −124 (1.8065) | 55.36% break-even; Dimers 55.4% | No bet. A 0.04-point model margin is rounding noise. |
| NHL: Montréal at Chicago, 01:00 Sat NHL | Chicago ML, Pinnacle +128 (2.28) | 43.86% break-even; computer preview predicts 4–3 Chicago but supplies no win probability | No bet. A score pick cannot be compared honestly with the price threshold. |
Worked lesson: a forecast must be compared with the price
“Likely to win” is not enough. Boston’s model probability is 59.9%, but the −129 price needs 56.33%; Virginia’s 55.4% forecast sounds similar, yet −124 needs 55.36%. The first cushion is 3.57 percentage points; the second is just 0.04.
Using the published probabilities strictly as sensitivity inputs, Boston’s model-based expected profit on €8 is €8 × [(0.599 × 1.7752) − 1] = about €0.51. Virginia’s comparable figure at 1.8065 is only €8 × [(0.554 × 1.8065) − 1] = about €0.01. Neither calculation proves an edge—the models can be wrong—but it shows why stake decisions must consider the gap above break-even, not simply which team is favoured.
18+ only. Editorial simulation, not betting advice. No real wagers are placed. Odds move and may be unavailable in your location. Gambling can cause harm; never chase losses and use licensed operators only. See the full Daily €50 Challenge methodology, audit and corrections policy.