Saturday’s card: €6 on Arsenal moneyline at 1.4975 and €8 on Wisconsin moneyline at 2.35; €36 unallocated. Two selections survived today’s source, price and probability checks. They are separate fictional singles, not an accumulator.
All event times are Europe/Dublin. The odds snapshot was observed at 05:00 on 24 October 2026 (04:00 UTC) and can move. This edition follows the site’s methodology: contemporaneous price evidence, official event information, explicit uncertainty, item-level settlement and no reconstructed total from the unaudited early archive.
First: settle the 23 October card
Friday’s published edition recorded two €8 singles. Boston beat New York 107–103, so the Celtics moneyline won. The official NBA game page identifies the fixture and final status; Reuters’ dated report supplies the final score. Milwaukee beat Tampa Bay 3–2 in World Series Game 1, so the full-game total was five runs and over 6.5 lost; the official MLB report confirms the score.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8.00 | 1.7752 | Win, 107–103 | €14.20 | +€6.20 |
| 23 Oct | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8.00 | 1.9524 | Loss, 5 runs | €0.00 | −€8.00 |
| Friday total | €16.00 | — | 1–1 | €14.20 | −€1.80 | |
Settlement arithmetic: €8 × 1.7752 = €14.2016, rounded to €14.20; the losing total returned €0. Friday net = €14.20 − €16.00 = −€1.80.
Verified running record
The verified subset now contains 35 settled singles, 19 wins and 16 losses; €316.00 settled stakes; €335.45 returns; verified net +€19.45; ROI 6.16%. Arithmetic: €335.45 − €316.00 = €19.45, and €19.45 ÷ €316.00 = 6.155%, shown as 6.16%. It starts on 9 October and excludes the unaudited early archive, including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price recorded on 20 September. The sample is small and is not a forecast.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Win | €15.10 |
| 17 Oct | Michigan −6.5 | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 17 Oct | Golden State Valkyries moneyline | €8 | 1.6849 | Win | €13.48 |
| 18 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €12 | 1.7407 | Win | €20.89 |
| 18 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €8 | 1.8929 | Win | €15.14 |
| 20 Oct | Colorado Avalanche moneyline | €8 | 1.9091 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 20 Oct | San Antonio Spurs moneyline | €10 | 1.8403 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6 | 1.6452 | Win | €9.87 |
| 23 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8 | 1.7752 | Win | €14.20 |
| 23 Oct | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| Verified total | €316 | — | 19–16 | €335.45 | |
Unverified, pending and void
| Status | Selection | Stake | Recorded price/result | Why here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unverified | Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Unverified | Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous 2.30 source has not been recovered. |
| Unverified | Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not the recorded +4. |
| Pending | Arsenal moneyline | €6 | 1.4975 / Pending | Today’s selection; settle on the 90-minute match result. |
| Pending | Wisconsin moneyline | €8 | 2.35 / Pending | Today’s selection; settle after the official result. |
| Void | None | €0 | — | No void selections in the verified ledger. |
Today’s €50 allocation
| Event (Ireland) | Selection | Book / exact market and price | Observed | Stake | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Everton 15:00 Sat 24 Oct | Arsenal moneyline, 90 minutes | Pinnacle −201 = 1.4975 | 05:00 Sat | €6 | €8.99 |
| USC at Wisconsin 00:30 Sun 25 Oct | Wisconsin moneyline | theScore Bet (ESPN Bet) +135 = 2.35 | 05:00 Sat | €8 | €18.80 |
| Unallocated | €36 | Not at risk | |||
| Bankroll check | €6 + €8 + €36 = €50 | ||||
The AgentBets multi-book board, timestamped 04:00 UTC, records both exact prices. The official Premier League match page and Everton’s official coverage notice confirm the 15:00 start. Wisconsin’s official preview confirms 18:30 Central at Camp Randall, which is 00:30 Sunday in Ireland.
Selection 1: Arsenal moneyline
Pinnacle’s −201 converts to 1 + (100 ÷ 201) = 1.4975. The price-implied break-even rate is 201 ÷ 301 = 66.78%. The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal a 69.5% win probability across 10,000 simulations, a 2.72-percentage-point cushion over the observed threshold.
The comparative case is largely defensive. Opta reports that Arsenal have conceded a league-low five goals, allowed only 21 shots on target and carry the league’s lowest expected goals against at 5.6. Everton are winless in eight Premier League away matches and have drawn all three away games this season. Those facts support Arsenal, but the probability margin is modest rather than decisive.
Counterargument and uncertainty
Arsenal’s absences matter at both ends. Everton’s official team-news update says Bukayo Saka, William Saliba and Christos Tzolis are ruled out, while Piero Hincapie may return. Everton had lost only once in the league before this trip, so a draw is a real threat to a short-priced three-way moneyline. The model cushion can disappear with a small forecast error, which is why the fictional stake is only €6. Settlement is the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; a draw or Everton win returns €0. An Arsenal win returns €6 × 1.4975 = €8.985, rounded to €8.99.
Selection 2: Wisconsin moneyline
The +135 price converts to 2.35, requiring a win probability above 100 ÷ 235 = 42.55%. A numberFire forecast published by FanDuel Research gives Wisconsin a 56.9% win probability. That is 14.35 percentage points above the observed price threshold.
The home split supplies a coherent reason for the model’s position. Wisconsin is 3–0 at Camp Randall, has won five straight there and has outscored this season’s home opponents 121–22. Its defence allows 16.7 points per game, while USC allows 25.1. Wisconsin is coming off a 17–10 road loss at UCLA but returns home for this matchup.
Counterargument and uncertainty
The market strongly disagrees with the model, and USC’s case is obvious. The official USC preview lists the Trojans at 6–1 after a 31–23 win at Penn State. Wisconsin says USC quarterback Jayden Maiava averages 292 passing yards per game with 18 touchdowns against three interceptions. USC also had a bye last week, while Wisconsin played at UCLA. The 56.9% figure is an opaque single-model output and is far from consensus; the large disagreement is a reason to cap the stake at €8, not to treat it as certainty. Standard college-football moneyline settlement includes overtime: a Wisconsin win returns €8 × 2.35 = €18.80; a USC win returns €0.
What was screened and passed over
| Sport / official fixture | Candidate price | Evidence problem | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBA: Houston at Atlanta, 01:30 Sun NBA | Houston ML, FanDuel +110 (2.10) | The official 00:45 ET report lists both teams as not yet submitted on a back-to-back. | No bet. The price cannot be assessed against unresolved availability. |
| MLB: Rays at Brewers, 01:00 Sun MLB | Milwaukee ML, FanDuel −120 (1.8333) | Drew Rasmussen and Logan Henderson are confirmed, but no opened event-specific probability source cleared the 54.55% threshold. | No bet. A starting-pitcher comparison alone is not a probability estimate. |
| NHL: Buffalo at Washington, 00:00 Sun NHL | Washington ML, Pinnacle −119 (1.8403) | The official Capitals preview has goalie Logan Thompson day-to-day and three skaters returning from or missing time through illness/surgery. | No bet. Goaltender status is too important to leave unresolved. |
Worked lesson: shrink fragile probabilities before sizing a stake
A model percentage is an estimate, not a property of the event. One simple stress test is to move the model halfway back toward the price-implied break-even rate. For Arsenal, halfway between 69.5% and 66.78% is 68.14%. At 1.4975, that stressed estimate produces only €6 × [(0.6814 × 1.4975) − 1] = about €0.12 of expected profit.
For Wisconsin, halfway between 56.9% and 42.55% is 49.73%. At 2.35, the same €8 sensitivity calculation is €8 × [(0.4973 × 2.35) − 1] = about €1.35. This does not prove either selection has an edge; it shows that Arsenal’s case is especially sensitive to small probability errors, while Wisconsin’s apparent margin is larger but comes with much stronger model-versus-market disagreement. Those different uncertainties justify small stakes and €36 left unallocated.
18+ only. Editorial simulation, not betting advice. No real wagers are placed. Odds move and may be unavailable in your location. Gambling can cause harm; never chase losses and use licensed operators only. See the full Daily €50 Challenge methodology, audit and corrections policy.