Tuesday’s card contains two separate fictional singles: €10 on the Los Angeles Lakers moneyline at 1.7246 and €6 on the Dallas Stars moneyline at 1.8333, with €34 unallocated. The €16 staked plus €34 held equals the €50 ceiling. Nothing here is an accumulator, and unallocated money is not treated as a stake.
All times are Europe/Dublin (GMT). Both prices were observed at 06:05 on 27 October 2026 and can move. This edition follows the site’s methodology: official fixture and result sources, event-specific price evidence, explicit uncertainty, item-level settlement and no carry-forward of the unaudited early archive.
First: settle the 26 October card
Monday’s published edition contained one €8 single on the New York Rangers moneyline at 1.7937. The official NHL recap records a 6–3 Los Angeles Kings win, so the Rangers selection lost and returned €0.
| Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers moneyline, including overtime/shootout | €8.00 | 1.7937 | Loss, 3–6 | €0.00 | −€8.00 |
Settlement is direct: the Rangers did not win, so the €8 stake returned €0 and Monday’s net was −€8.00. This is the original market and price; it has not been rewritten after the result.
Verified running record
The verified subset now contains 42 settled singles: 23 wins and 19 losses; €365.00 settled stakes; €391.89 returns; verified net +€26.89; ROI 7.37%. Arithmetic: €391.89 − €365.00 = €26.89, and €26.89 ÷ €365.00 = 7.367%, shown as 7.37%. This audited subset starts on 9 October and excludes the unaudited early archive, including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price recorded on 20 September.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Win | €15.10 |
| 17 Oct | Michigan −6.5 | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 17 Oct | Golden State Valkyries moneyline | €8 | 1.6849 | Win | €13.48 |
| 18 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €12 | 1.7407 | Win | €20.89 |
| 18 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €8 | 1.8929 | Win | €15.14 |
| 20 Oct | Colorado Avalanche moneyline | €8 | 1.9091 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 20 Oct | San Antonio Spurs moneyline | €10 | 1.8403 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6 | 1.6452 | Win | €9.87 |
| 23 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8 | 1.7752 | Win | €14.20 |
| 23 Oct | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 24 Oct | Arsenal moneyline | €6 | 1.4975 | Win | €8.99 |
| 24 Oct | Wisconsin moneyline | €8 | 2.35 | Win | €18.80 |
| 25 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €8 | 1.6369 | Win | €13.10 |
| 25 Oct | Manchester United moneyline, 90 min | €4 | 2.29 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Carolina Panthers moneyline | €7 | 1.6897 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline | €8 | 1.9434 | Win | €15.55 |
| 26 Oct | New York Rangers moneyline | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| Verified total | €365 | — | 23–19 | €391.89 | |
Unverified, pending and void
| Status | Selection | Stake | Recorded price/result | Why here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unverified | Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Unverified | Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous 2.30 source has not been recovered. |
| Unverified | Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not the recorded +4. |
| Pending | Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | €10 | 1.7246 / Pending | Today’s selection; straight game moneyline. |
| Pending | Dallas Stars moneyline | €6 | 1.8333 / Pending | Today’s selection; standard NHL moneyline including overtime/shootout. |
| Void | None | €0 | — | No void selections in the verified ledger. |
Today’s €50 allocation
| Event (Ireland) | Selection | Book / exact market and price | Observed | Stake | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers 03:00 Wed 28 Oct | Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | FanDuel −138 = 1.7246 | 06:05 Tue | €10 | €17.25 |
| New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars 00:00 Wed 28 Oct | Dallas Stars moneyline, including overtime/shootout | FanDuel −120 = 1.8333 | 06:05 Tue | €6 | €11.00 |
| Unallocated | €34 | Not at risk | |||
| Bankroll check | €10 + €6 + €34 = €50 | ||||
Selection 1: Los Angeles Lakers moneyline
The official NBA game page lists Portland at the Lakers at 23:00 ET on 27 October, which is 03:00 in Ireland on Wednesday. FanDuel Research’s same-day NBA board displayed Lakers −138 and Portland +118 at 06:05 Ireland time. −138 converts to 1 + (100 ÷ 138) = 1.7246, a raw break-even threshold of 138 ÷ 238 = 57.98%. The same board attributes a 69.82% Lakers win probability to numberFire.
The official NBA 23:00 ET injury report lists Portland’s Shaedon Sharpe out, Scoot Henderson and Branden Carlson questionable, and Lakers rotation depth Cameron Carr and Adou Thiero out; Walker Kessler is available. That is modestly favourable to Los Angeles, but the strongest contrary evidence is Portland’s 2–0 start and the instability of the price: FanDuel’s separate game article simultaneously displayed Lakers −158. The simulation therefore records only the better −138 shown on the all-games board and treats −138 as the maximum acceptable price; if that number is unavailable, this selection should be passed rather than silently repriced.
This is not presented as a measured edge. De-margining −138 against +118 gives Los Angeles 55.83%. Giving the 69.82% model only 25% weight and the market 75% yields 59.33%, barely 1.35 percentage points above the 57.98% break-even threshold. That conservative comparison supports only a €10 fictional stake. A win returns €10 × 1.7246 = €17.25; a loss returns €0.
Selection 2: Dallas Stars moneyline
The official NHL game centre establishes New Jersey at Dallas on 27 October. The event-specific FanDuel Research page lists a 20:00 ET start, which is 00:00 Wednesday in Ireland, and a Dallas −120 moneyline with New Jersey +100. −120 converts to 1.8333 and requires 120 ÷ 220 = 54.55%. numberFire’s stated Dallas probability is 67.8%.
Recent official evidence is supportive but not decisive: the NHL recap says Dallas beat the Islanders 6–3 for a fifth straight win. The countercase is substantial. NHL.com says defenseman Esa Lindell is out, and its 26 October Dallas recap says Radek Faksa and Sam Steel may also miss this game. New Jersey has acquired three-time Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck; NHL.com notes that he had not played this season and that his debut timing remained subject to evaluation. Either his quality or his rust could matter, and the starting goalie was not confirmed at publication.
De-margining Dallas −120 and New Jersey +100 makes the market’s no-vig Dallas estimate 52.17%. A 25% weight on the 67.8% model and 75% on that market estimate gives 56.08%, only 1.53 points above the 54.55% break-even threshold. The unusually large raw model-market disagreement and the goalie uncertainty argue for a small €6 stake, not a confident label. A win in regulation, overtime or a shootout returns €6 × 1.8333 = €11.00; a loss returns €0.
What was screened and rejected
| Sport / event | Evidence checked | Decision |
|---|---|---|
| NHL: Buffalo at San Jose, 02:30 Wed | The official game centre confirms the fixture. The event page shows Buffalo −137, San Jose +114 and a 63.4% model estimate. | No bet: −137 requires 57.81%; after heavy market weighting for unresolved goalie information, the estimate falls just below that threshold. |
| NHL: Boston at Carolina, 00:00 Wed | The official game centre confirms the fixture; the event page shows Carolina −192 and a 63.1% model estimate. | No bet: the 65.75% break-even threshold is already above the stated model probability. |
| NBA: Detroit at New York, 00:00 Wed | The official NBA page confirms the fixture. The event page shows the Knicks around −168 and a 53.6% model estimate; the official injury report lists Jalen Duren out for Detroit. | No bet: even the shorter −162 price on FanDuel’s all-games board requires 61.83%, well above the model. |
| MLB World Series Game 4: Milwaukee at Tampa Bay, 00:00 Wed | The official MLB scoreboard confirms Game 4 and lists Milwaukee’s starter as TBD while Tampa Bay lists Griffin Jax. | No bet: no opened event-specific source supplied a current Game 4 price, so no price was invented or borrowed from another game. |
Worked lesson: the price page can be the uncertainty
The Lakers example shows why “the bookmaker price” is not always one immutable number. At the same observation time, two FanDuel Research pages displayed −138 and −158. Those convert to decimal 1.7246 and 1.6329, with break-even probabilities of 57.98% and 61.24%. A model estimate of 59.33% after conservative market shrinkage clears −138 but does not clear −158.
The practical rule is therefore part of the selection: Lakers moneyline only at 1.7246 (−138) or better. Recording the observation time and the exact page protects the ledger from treating any later Lakers price as equivalent. The possible combined return if both singles win is €17.25 + €11.00 = €28.25 on €16 staked; that is a scenario, not a forecast, and the €34 unallocated remains outside the risk and ROI calculations.
18+ only. Editorial simulation, not betting advice. No real wagers are placed. Odds move and may be unavailable in your location. Gambling can cause harm; never chase losses and use licensed operators only. See the full Daily €50 Challenge methodology, audit and corrections policy.
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