Thursday’s card has one separate straight single: €6 on the Boston Bruins moneyline at FanDuel decimal 1.9615. The other €44 remains unallocated. The restrained stake reflects a modest, explicitly modelled margin and material goaltender/sample uncertainty. Unallocated money is not a stake and is excluded from returns and ROI.
All times are Europe/Dublin (GMT). Sources and prices were opened between 05:56 and 06:01 on 29 October 2026; the selected FanDuel snapshot is timestamped 05:00 GMT and can move. This edition follows the site’s methodology: exact market and observation details, official event/result evidence, dated team news, explicit uncertainty, item-level settlement and no carry-forward of the unaudited early archive.
First: final settlement of the 27 October card
Tuesday’s published edition contained two straight moneyline singles. Dallas was already settled as a €6 loss in Wednesday’s edition. The official NBA recap now records Portland’s 136–129 win at the Lakers. The €10 Los Angeles Lakers moneyline at 1.7246 therefore lost and returned €0.
| Selection | Stake | Odds | Official result | Return | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars moneyline, including overtime/shootout | €6.00 | 1.8333 | Loss, 1–5 | €0.00 | −€6.00 |
| Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | €10.00 | 1.7246 | Loss, 129–136 | €0.00 | −€10.00 |
| 27 October card | €16.00 | — | 0–2 | €0.00 | −€16.00 |
Settlement arithmetic is direct: both moneylines lost, so each return is €0. Tuesday’s total is €0 − €16 = −€16.00. Wednesday had no selections, so there is no additional result to settle.
Verified running record
The verified subset now contains 44 settled singles: 23 wins and 21 losses; €381.00 settled stakes; €391.89 returns; verified net +€10.89; ROI 2.86%. Arithmetic: €391.89 − €381.00 = €10.89, and €10.89 ÷ €381.00 = 2.8583%, shown as 2.86%. The open Boston selection below is pending and excluded. This audited subset starts on 9 October and excludes the unaudited early archive, including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price from 20 September.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Win | €15.10 |
| 17 Oct | Michigan −6.5 | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 17 Oct | Golden State Valkyries moneyline | €8 | 1.6849 | Win | €13.48 |
| 18 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €12 | 1.7407 | Win | €20.89 |
| 18 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €8 | 1.8929 | Win | €15.14 |
| 20 Oct | Colorado Avalanche moneyline | €8 | 1.9091 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 20 Oct | San Antonio Spurs moneyline | €10 | 1.8403 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6 | 1.6452 | Win | €9.87 |
| 23 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8 | 1.7752 | Win | €14.20 |
| 23 Oct | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 24 Oct | Arsenal moneyline | €6 | 1.4975 | Win | €8.99 |
| 24 Oct | Wisconsin moneyline | €8 | 2.35 | Win | €18.80 |
| 25 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €8 | 1.6369 | Win | €13.10 |
| 25 Oct | Manchester United moneyline, 90 min | €4 | 2.29 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Carolina Panthers moneyline | €7 | 1.6897 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline | €8 | 1.9434 | Win | €15.55 |
| 26 Oct | New York Rangers moneyline | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Dallas Stars moneyline | €6 | 1.8333 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | €10 | 1.7246 | Loss | €0.00 |
| Verified total | €381 | — | 23–21 | €391.89 | |
Unverified, pending and void
| Status | Selection | Stake | Recorded price/result | Why here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unverified | Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Unverified | Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous 2.30 source has not been recovered. |
| Unverified | Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not the recorded +4. |
| Pending | Boston Bruins moneyline | €6 | 1.9615 / Pending | 29 October event has not started; excluded from verified totals. |
| Void | None | €0 | — | No void selections in the verified ledger. |
Today’s €50 allocation
| Event (Ireland) | Selection | Book / exact market | Stake | Decimal odds | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Bruins at St Louis Blues Scheduled 00:00 Fri 30 Oct; odds feed puck-drop 00:10 | Boston Bruins moneyline, including overtime/shootout | FanDuel; game moneyline; observed 05:00 GMT | €6.00 | 1.9615 (−104) | €11.77 |
| Unallocated | €44.00 | — | Not at risk | ||
| Bankroll check: €6 staked + €44 unallocated = €50 | |||||
Selection: Boston Bruins moneyline
Price evidence. The hourly FanDuel NHL board records Boston −104 and St Louis −115 at 05:00 GMT. Converting −104 gives 1 + 100/104 = 1.9615, so the raw break-even probability is 1/1.9615 = 50.98%. A €6 win would return €6 × 1.9615 = €11.769, rounded to €11.77; a loss returns €0.
Fixture, form and availability. The official Blues preview dated 28 October lists the game for 7 p.m. CT, reports Boston at 9-3-1 and 7-2-1 over its last 10, and notes that St Louis has been shut out in two straight home games despite putting 46 shots on Montréal. The AP/Sportradar matchup report lists Boston at 4-1-1 away, St Louis at 3-1-1 home, six Blues absences and none for Boston. That does not remove normal late goaltender and lineup risk.
Why only €6. A deliberately market-anchored estimate below reaches 52.91%, only 1.93 percentage points above the price threshold. Boston’s season sample is 13 games, St Louis generated 46 shots in its last loss, the Blues’ home record is strong and an unannounced goalie change can move an NHL moneyline materially. Those counterarguments cap the allocation at 12% of the fictional €50 rather than inviting false precision.
Cross-sport screen: why the rest was left alone
| Sport / event (Ireland) | Opened evidence | Decision |
|---|---|---|
| NFL: Carolina at Green Bay 00:15 Fri | DraftKings −185 / +154, opened 05:59; official Panthers injury report dated 28 Oct. | No selection. Green Bay −185 needs 64.91%, but no opened independent probability estimate justified that threshold; Carolina has four players out while Green Bay’s interior-line injuries make the favourite difficult to price. |
| NBA: Memphis at Portland 02:00 Fri | official NBA fixture; FanDuel Portland −270 / Memphis +220 and numberFire Portland 75%, opened 06:00. | No selection. −270 needs 72.97%. Removing the two-sided margin gives Portland 70.01%; an 75% market/25% model blend is 71.26%, below the price threshold. |
| NCAAF: Florida Atlantic at North Texas 23:30 Thu | official UNT fixture; FanDuel +420 / −520 at 01:00 GMT, decimal 5.20 / 1.1923. | No selection. North Texas −520 needs 83.87%, but the price is too short without a sufficiently independent, calibrated same-game probability and fully reconciled availability report. |
| NCAAF: Troy at James Madison 23:30 Thu | official JMU preview; same FanDuel board showed +720 / −1050 at 01:00 GMT. | No selection. JMU −1050 needs 91.30%; the 7-1 record and home advantage are not a probability model, and the official preview says JMU is coming off an overtime loss. |
| NHL: Montréal at Dallas 00:10 Fri | Same 05:00 FanDuel board: Montréal +142 / Dallas −172, decimal 2.42 / 1.5814; opened models were Puckwired 57.3% and Dimers 55.3%. | No selection. Dallas −172 needs 63.24%; both estimates were lower, so the favourite did not clear the price. |
Worked lesson: shrink a small-sample signal toward the market
The two-sided FanDuel moneyline implies Boston 50.98% and St Louis 53.49%, a 104.47% total. Normalising removes the overround: 50.98 ÷ 104.47 = 48.80% for Boston. That is the conservative market baseline, not a claim that the market is wrong.
For a transparent form check, convert the published records to points percentages: Boston has 19 points from 13 games, 19/26 = 73.08%; St Louis has 11 from 12, 11/24 = 45.83%. A simple Log5 comparison gives (0.7308 − 0.7308×0.4583) ÷ (0.7308 + 0.4583 − 2×0.7308×0.4583) = 76.23%. That figure is plainly too aggressive on a tiny schedule, so give it only 15% weight and the no-vig market 85%: (0.85×48.80%) + (0.15×76.23%) = 52.91%.
At 1.9615 the break-even threshold is 50.98%, leaving a modelled cushion of only 1.93 percentage points. This is a screening estimate, not a guaranteed edge: schedule strength, home ice, overtime treatment, goalie choice and early-season noise can erase it. That is why the stake is €6 and €44 stays untouched.
18+ only. Fictional editorial simulation, not betting advice. No real wagers are placed. Odds move and may be unavailable in your location. Gambling can cause harm; never chase losses and use licensed operators only. See the full Daily €50 Challenge methodology, audit and corrections policy.
Response
[…] Thursday’s published edition staked €6 on the Boston Bruins moneyline, including overtime and shootout, at FanDuel decimal 1.9615. The official NHL recap dated 30 October records St Louis’s 4–1 regulation win. Boston therefore lost; the settlement does not require any tie-break or overtime interpretation. […]