Wednesday is a no-selection edition: €0 is staked and the full €50 fictional allocation remains unallocated. Champions League, NBA and NHL candidates were checked against named-book prices and event-specific probability estimates. Manchester City and Florida fail their price thresholds. Memphis clears its threshold on one displayed estimate, but the same model page presents conflicting probabilities, labels its own moneyline a pass at another price and warns that the sample is only seven games while Indiana’s availability remains unsettled. Unallocated money is not a stake and is excluded from return and ROI.
All times are Europe/Dublin (GMT). Sources were opened through 06:04 on 4 November 2026. The quoted odds snapshots are timestamped 06:00 GMT for RB Leipzig–Manchester City, 05:00 GMT for Indiana–Memphis and 04:00 GMT for Chicago–Florida. Prices can move. This edition follows the site’s methodology: exact market evidence, official event sources, item-level settlement, separate audit statuses, explicit uncertainty and no carry-forward of the unaudited early archive.
Settlement check for 3 November
The Tuesday edition published no selections: €0 was staked and €50 remained unallocated. There is no event or market to settle, so returns are €0 and the ledger change is €0. This checked non-entry is neither a loss nor a void.
| Previous edition | Settled selections | Stake | Return | Net change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 November 2026 | None | €0.00 | €0.00 | €0.00 |
Verified running record
The verified subset now contains 45 settled singles: 23 wins and 22 losses; €387.00 settled stakes; €391.89 returns; verified net +€4.89; ROI 1.26%. Arithmetic: €391.89 − €387.00 = €4.89, and €4.89 ÷ €387.00 = 1.2636%, shown as 1.26%. Today has no pending selection. This audited subset starts on 9 October and excludes the unaudited early archive, including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price from 20 September.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Win | €15.10 |
| 17 Oct | Michigan −6.5 | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 17 Oct | Golden State Valkyries moneyline | €8 | 1.6849 | Win | €13.48 |
| 18 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €12 | 1.7407 | Win | €20.89 |
| 18 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €8 | 1.8929 | Win | €15.14 |
| 20 Oct | Colorado Avalanche moneyline | €8 | 1.9091 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 20 Oct | San Antonio Spurs moneyline | €10 | 1.8403 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6 | 1.6452 | Win | €9.87 |
| 23 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8 | 1.7752 | Win | €14.20 |
| 23 Oct | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 24 Oct | Arsenal moneyline | €6 | 1.4975 | Win | €8.99 |
| 24 Oct | Wisconsin moneyline | €8 | 2.35 | Win | €18.80 |
| 25 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €8 | 1.6369 | Win | €13.10 |
| 25 Oct | Manchester United moneyline, 90 min | €4 | 2.29 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Carolina Panthers moneyline | €7 | 1.6897 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline | €8 | 1.9434 | Win | €15.55 |
| 26 Oct | New York Rangers moneyline | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Dallas Stars moneyline | €6 | 1.8333 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | €10 | 1.7246 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 29 Oct | Boston Bruins moneyline | €6 | 1.9615 | Loss | €0.00 |
| Verified total | €387 | — | 23–22 | €391.89 | |
Unverified entries
| Selection | Stake | Recorded price/result | Reason excluded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous 2.30 source has not been recovered. |
| Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not the recorded +4. |
Pending entries
None. No open selection remains from today or an earlier verified edition.
Void entries
None. Under the declared convention, void stakes would be returned and excluded from settled turnover; the verified ledger currently contains no void selection.
Today’s €50 allocation
| Selection | Stake | Price | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|
| No qualifying selection | €0.00 | — | €0.00 |
| Unallocated | €50.00 | — | Not at risk |
| Bankroll check: €0 staked + €50 unallocated = €50 | |||
Cross-sport screen
| Event (Ireland) | Exact price and threshold | Comparative reasoning and decision |
|---|---|---|
| UEFA Champions League RB Leipzig v Manchester City 20:00 | Fanatics: Manchester City −180, decimal 1.5556, 90-minute match winner; 06:00 GMT snapshot across 19 books. Break-even: 64.29%. The official City preview confirms Wednesday 4 November at 20:00 GMT. | The Opta supercomputer gives City 57.7%, 6.59 points below the price threshold. City’s case includes Erling Haaland’s 12 goals in eight games against Leipzig; the countercase is an away match with the price already shortened from −165 to −180. No selection. |
| NBA Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies Official tip 01:00 Thursday; odds metadata 01:10 | betPARX: Memphis −245, decimal 1.4082, moneyline; 05:00 GMT snapshot across 19 books. Break-even: 71.01%. The official NBA team game page confirms 20:00 ET, or 01:00 GMT Thursday. | HoopMetrics displays 74.7% for its moneyline calculation, a nominal 3.69-point cushion, while its page header says 81% and its own market table says “Pass” at −278. It explicitly notes a seven-game sample. Memphis are 6–1, but the official Pacers preview says three starters return and lists three additional Pacers as questionable. The point estimate is not stable enough to support a stake. No selection. |
| NHL Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers Official puck drop 00:30 Thursday; odds metadata 00:40 | theScore Bet: Florida −230, decimal 1.4348, moneyline including overtime/shootout; 04:00 GMT snapshot across 20 books. Break-even: 69.70%. The official Panthers schedule announcement confirms 19:30 ET, or 00:30 GMT Thursday. | Dimers estimates Florida at 66.6%, 3.10 points below the threshold. Florida have won three of four and Chicago have lost six of seven; the dated game preview also reports Patrick Kane out. But Florida are without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, and their available goaltenders’ listed save percentages are below .900. The favourite remains too short. No selection. |
Timing note: official team sources supply the reader-facing NBA and NHL start times. The odds provider adds ten minutes to both event records. Both clocks are retained: the official time describes the event, and the provider time identifies the quoted price record.
Worked lesson: a positive point estimate can still be a pass
Memphis at −245 converts to decimal 1 + 100 ÷ 245 = 1.4082. Its break-even probability is 245 ÷ 345 = 71.01%. Using the page’s more conservative 74.7% moneyline figure, expected return per €1 would be 0.747 × 1.4082 = €1.0518, a nominal 5.18-cent gain.
That calculation is conditional on 74.7% being well calibrated. The entire cushion disappears if the true probability is 3.69 percentage points lower. Here the source itself shows two different Memphis probabilities, labels the moneyline a pass at −278, reports only seven games of sample data and applies a large −5.1-point Indiana absence adjustment while three Pacers are questionable and three starters are returning. Those are specific reasons the estimate could move, not generic caution. A positive expected-value calculation from an unstable input is not enough evidence to call a measured edge.
18+ only. Fictional editorial simulation, not betting advice. No real wagers are placed. Odds move and may be unavailable in your location. Gambling can cause harm; never chase losses and use licensed operators only. See the full Daily €50 Challenge methodology, audit and corrections policy.