Thursday is a no-selection edition: €0.00 is staked and €50.00 remains unallocated. The review found plausible favourites in the NFL, NBA and NHL, but the available probability evidence either failed the current price threshold or disagreed too sharply to support an audited selection.
All event times are Europe/Dublin (GMT). Sources were opened through 06:08 on 12 November 2026; the comparison board was stamped 06:00 GMT. Prices can move. This edition follows the site’s methodology: official fixture and availability sources, event-specific prices, item-level settlement, separate audit statuses and no carry-forward of the unaudited early archive.
Settlement check for 11 November
The Wednesday edition allocated €0.00 and left €50.00 unallocated. No selection was published, so there is no event to settle, no return to add and no pending entry to move into the verified record.
| Prior allocation | Settled stake | Return | Ledger effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| No selections | €0.00 | €0.00 | None; unallocated funds are not stakes |
The verified record therefore remains 48 settled singles, 26 wins and 22 losses; €405.00 settled stakes; €420.17 returns; net +€15.17; ROI 3.75%. Arithmetic: €420.17 − €405.00 = €15.17, and €15.17 ÷ €405.00 = 3.7457%, shown as 3.75%.
Verified running record
The verified subset now contains 48 settled singles: 26 wins and 22 losses; €405.00 settled stakes; €420.17 returns; verified net +€15.17; ROI 3.75%. Arithmetic: €420.17 − €405.00 = €15.17, and €15.17 ÷ €405.00 = 3.7457%, shown as 3.75%. There are no pending selections in today’s edition. This audited subset starts on 9 October and excludes the unaudited early archive, including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price from 20 September.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Win | €15.10 |
| 17 Oct | Michigan −6.5 | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 17 Oct | Golden State Valkyries moneyline | €8 | 1.6849 | Win | €13.48 |
| 18 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €12 | 1.7407 | Win | €20.89 |
| 18 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €8 | 1.8929 | Win | €15.14 |
| 20 Oct | Colorado Avalanche moneyline | €8 | 1.9091 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 20 Oct | San Antonio Spurs moneyline | €10 | 1.8403 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6 | 1.6452 | Win | €9.87 |
| 23 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8 | 1.7752 | Win | €14.20 |
| 23 Oct | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 24 Oct | Arsenal moneyline | €6 | 1.4975 | Win | €8.99 |
| 24 Oct | Wisconsin moneyline | €8 | 2.35 | Win | €18.80 |
| 25 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €8 | 1.6369 | Win | €13.10 |
| 25 Oct | Manchester United moneyline, 90 min | €4 | 2.29 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Carolina Panthers moneyline | €7 | 1.6897 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline | €8 | 1.9434 | Win | €15.55 |
| 26 Oct | New York Rangers moneyline | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Dallas Stars moneyline | €6 | 1.8333 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | €10 | 1.7246 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 29 Oct | Boston Bruins moneyline | €6 | 1.9615 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 7 Nov | Utah Utes moneyline | €6 | 1.5917 | Win | €9.55 |
| 7 Nov | Denver Nuggets moneyline, including overtime | €6 | 1.4167 | Win | €8.50 |
| 8 Nov | Denver Broncos moneyline, including overtime | €6 | 1.7042 | Win | €10.23 |
| Verified total | €405 | — | 26–22 | €420.17 | |
Unverified entries
| Selection | Stake | Recorded price/result | Reason excluded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous 2.30 source has not been recovered. |
| Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not the recorded +4. |
Pending entries
None. Wednesday’s edition allocated €0, so there is no result to settle and no selection enters the pending ledger.
Void entries
None. Under the declared convention, void stakes would be returned and excluded from settled turnover; the verified ledger currently contains no void selection.
Today’s €50 allocation
| Selections | Staked | Unallocated | Bankroll check |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | €0.00 | €50.00 | €0.00 + €50.00 = €50.00 |
NFL review: a consensus edge too small to trust
The official NFL schedule lists Washington at the New York Giants at 01:15 Friday. The 06:00 GMT price comparison showed Giants moneyline at Bovada −125, decimal 1.8000, implying a 55.56% break-even probability.
| Event | Exact market | Probability evidence | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders at New York Giants 01:15 Friday | Giants moneyline, including overtime Bovada −125; decimal 1.8000; threshold 55.56% | The Sports Wire consensus is 56%, but its components range from a 51% Washington call by ESPN FPI (49% Giants) to 64% Giants by Elo. | The headline consensus clears the price by only 0.44 percentage points, while a named component favours the other side. The Giants’ final injury report also lists LB Malik Harrison questionable with a groin issue. No selection. |
NBA review: Phoenix price rejected
The official NBA schedule lists Charlotte at Phoenix at 02:00 Friday. The official 12:00 a.m. ET injury report has Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller and Dennis Schroder out; Moussa Diabaté and Grant Williams are probable. Phoenix’s Mark Williams is out.
| Event | Exact market at 06:00 GMT | Probability evidence | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns 02:00 Friday | Phoenix moneyline, including overtime theScore Bet/ESPN Bet −215; decimal 1.4651; threshold 68.25% | HoopMetrics gives Phoenix 74%. Statz is internally inconsistent: its headline says 68%, while adjacent text says 62%. | The 12-point span is material at a 68.25% threshold, and even one source does not publish a single stable estimate on the page. Phoenix has also allowed 118.1 points per game over the ten-game form window shown by Statz. No selection. |
NHL review: four favourites below the threshold
The official NHL schedule confirms the Thursday slate. The exact moneyline prices below came from the same 06:00 GMT comparison snapshot; the independent win probabilities are from Bandwagon’s 12 November model page. Each quoted model probability is below its price-implied break-even point.
| Event and time (Ireland) | Exact market | Model vs threshold | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montréal at Boston 00:00 Friday | Boston ML; DraftKings −120; decimal 1.8333 | 54.0% vs 54.55% required | Below threshold by 0.55 points. No selection. |
| Colorado at Ottawa 00:00 Friday | Colorado ML; BetUS −115; decimal 1.8696 | 53.0% vs 53.49% required | Below threshold by 0.49 points. No selection. |
| Minnesota at Toronto 00:00 Friday | Minnesota ML; Bally Bet −159; decimal 1.6289 | 61.0% vs 61.39% required | Below threshold by 0.39 points. No selection. |
| Washington at New Jersey 00:00 Friday | New Jersey ML; LowVig.ag −144; decimal 1.6944 | 52.0% vs 59.02% required | Below threshold by 7.02 points. No selection. |
Worked lesson: consensus can hide decisive disagreement
At decimal 1.8000, the Giants need to win more than 1 ÷ 1.8000 = 55.56% of the time before costs to break even. Using the 56% consensus literally gives expected return per €1 of 0.56 × 1.8000 = €1.008, or only €0.008 above stake. But using the source’s own 52% model gives 0.52 × 1.8000 = €0.936, and the ESPN FPI component implies 49% for New York, or 0.49 × 1.8000 = €0.882. A tiny consensus surplus is not robust when reasonable component estimates change the sign so easily. The disciplined response is to leave the money unallocated, not to average away the disagreement.
Audit note and disclosure
No historical selection was rewritten today and no correction was required. The verified, unverified, pending and void categories above remain separate. The unaudited early archive—including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City Chiefs price from 20 September—is not included in the verified total.
18+ only. This is a fictional editorial simulation, not betting advice, a tip service or a record of real wagers. Odds can change and losses are possible. If gambling is not fun, stop. Full sourcing, calculation, settlement and correction rules are in the Daily50 methodology.
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