Saturday is a no-selection edition: €0.00 is staked and €50.00 remains unallocated. The review found prominent favourites in the NBA, NHL and college football, but official availability was incomplete in the NBA and the probability evidence for the other candidates either fell below or materially disagreed around the exact price threshold.
All event times are Europe/Dublin (GMT). Sources were opened through 06:10 on 14 November 2026; the event-specific price pages were stamped 05:00 GMT. Prices can move. This edition follows the site’s methodology: official fixture and availability sources, exact event-specific prices, item-level settlement, separate audit statuses and no carry-forward of the unaudited early archive.
Settlement: Knicks moneyline lost
The Friday edition recorded a €6.00 New York Knicks moneyline single at Pinnacle −255, decimal 1.3922, including overtime. The official NBA result is Indiana Pacers 106, New York Knicks 104. Indiana won the game, so the Knicks moneyline lost under the recorded market.
| Selection | Stake | Recorded odds | Official result | Settlement | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks moneyline, including overtime | €6.00 | 1.3922 | Pacers 106–104 Knicks | Loss | €0.00 |
Arithmetic: €6.00 settled stake; €0.00 return; daily net €0.00 − €6.00 = −€6.00. The verified record moves from 48 to 49 settled singles: 26 wins and 23 losses; €411.00 stakes; €420.17 returns; net +€9.17; ROI 2.23%.
Verified running record
The verified subset now contains 49 settled singles: 26 wins and 23 losses; €411.00 settled stakes; €420.17 returns; verified net +€9.17; ROI 2.23%. Arithmetic: €420.17 − €411.00 = €9.17, and €9.17 ÷ €411.00 = 2.2311%, shown as 2.23%. There are no pending selections in today’s edition. This audited subset starts on 9 October and excludes the unaudited early archive, including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price from 20 September.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Win | €15.10 |
| 17 Oct | Michigan −6.5 | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 17 Oct | Golden State Valkyries moneyline | €8 | 1.6849 | Win | €13.48 |
| 18 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €12 | 1.7407 | Win | €20.89 |
| 18 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €8 | 1.8929 | Win | €15.14 |
| 20 Oct | Colorado Avalanche moneyline | €8 | 1.9091 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 20 Oct | San Antonio Spurs moneyline | €10 | 1.8403 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6 | 1.6452 | Win | €9.87 |
| 23 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8 | 1.7752 | Win | €14.20 |
| 23 Oct | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 24 Oct | Arsenal moneyline | €6 | 1.4975 | Win | €8.99 |
| 24 Oct | Wisconsin moneyline | €8 | 2.35 | Win | €18.80 |
| 25 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €8 | 1.6369 | Win | €13.10 |
| 25 Oct | Manchester United moneyline, 90 min | €4 | 2.29 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Carolina Panthers moneyline | €7 | 1.6897 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline | €8 | 1.9434 | Win | €15.55 |
| 26 Oct | New York Rangers moneyline | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Dallas Stars moneyline | €6 | 1.8333 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | €10 | 1.7246 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 29 Oct | Boston Bruins moneyline | €6 | 1.9615 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 7 Nov | Utah Utes moneyline | €6 | 1.5917 | Win | €9.55 |
| 7 Nov | Denver Nuggets moneyline, including overtime | €6 | 1.4167 | Win | €8.50 |
| 8 Nov | Denver Broncos moneyline, including overtime | €6 | 1.7042 | Win | €10.23 |
| 13 Nov | New York Knicks moneyline, including overtime | €6 | 1.3922 | Loss | €0.00 |
| Verified total | €411 | — | 26–23 | €420.17 | |
Unverified entries
| Selection | Stake | Recorded price/result | Reason excluded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous 2.30 source has not been recovered. |
| Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not the recorded +4. |
Pending entries
None. Friday’s Knicks single is now settled and included in the verified table above.
Void entries
None. Under the declared convention, void stakes would be returned and excluded from settled turnover; the verified ledger currently contains no void selection.
Today’s €50 allocation
| Selections | Staked | Unallocated | Bankroll check |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | €0.00 | €50.00 | €0.00 + €50.00 = €50.00 |
NBA review: Detroit price rejected
The official NBA schedule lists Detroit at Miami at 01:00 Sunday. The 05:00 GMT event page showed Detroit moneyline at FanDuel −176, decimal 1.5682, requiring 63.77% to break even.
| Probability source | Detroit estimate | Relation to 63.77% threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Bandwagon | 69% | Above |
| Courtside | 73% | Above |
| bayesRatings | 62% | Below |
The estimates span 11 percentage points and straddle the price. Availability adds specific uncertainty: the official 12:30 a.m. ET injury report lists Detroit’s Jalen Duren and Isaiah Joe out, while Miami had not yet submitted its report. A favourable headline model cannot resolve an absent opponent report. No NBA selection.
College football review: short prices outrun the estimates
Official team pages confirm Wisconsin at Maryland and Duke at Miami at 17:00 Saturday: Maryland lists Wisconsin at noon ET, while Duke lists its Miami game at noon ET. The two event-specific odds pages below were stamped 05:00 GMT.
| Event | Exact moneyline | Probability evidence | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin at Maryland 17:00 Saturday | Wisconsin; Pinnacle −315; decimal 1.3175; threshold 75.90% | College Football Charts: SP+ 73%, PRIME 75%, Elo 84%, headline 78%. The Sports Wire call: 67%, with components from 53% to 83%. | The majority of named estimates are below the price threshold and the overall range is too wide. No selection. |
| Duke at Miami 17:00 Saturday | Miami; BetMGM −550; decimal 1.1818; threshold 84.62% | College Football Charts: headline 82%, SP+ 83%, PRIME 86%, Elo 78%; WR Malachi Toney is out. The Sports Wire call: 82%. | Both composite calls are below the threshold; only one named component clears it. No selection. |
NHL review: attractive favourites, incompatible probabilities
The official NHL schedule confirms the Saturday slate. Exact moneylines are from event pages stamped 05:00 GMT; all times below are Ireland time.
| Event | Exact moneyline | Model range | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle at Carolina 18:00 Saturday | Carolina; DraftKings −355; decimal 1.2817; threshold 78.02% | Pony xG 79%; PicksRecon 65%; PlayerWON 56.9%–59.8%. Pony lists both goalies as projected rather than confirmed. | Only one source clears the threshold; the range exceeds 22 points. No selection. |
| Detroit at Tampa Bay 00:00 Sunday | Tampa Bay; theScore Bet −210; decimal 1.4762; threshold 67.74%. The odds feed labels 00:10, ten minutes after the official schedule. | Pony xG 72%; PicksRecon 69%; PlayerWON 63.3%–69.5%; Dimers 64.7%. Pony notes Tampa Bay is playing its third game in four nights and lists its goalie as projected. | Credible estimates sit on both sides of the threshold. No selection. |
| Calgary at Los Angeles 03:00 Sunday | Los Angeles; theScore Bet −165; decimal 1.6061; threshold 62.26%. The odds feed labels 03:10, ten minutes after the official schedule. | Pony xG 64%; PlayerWON 54.6%–59.3%; PicksRecon 54%. | One estimate clears by only 1.74 points; the others are below by at least 2.96 points. No selection. |
Worked lesson: a likely winner can still be a bad price
Miami is the clearest example. The −550 price converts to decimal (550 + 100) ÷ 550 = 1.1818, so break-even is 1 ÷ 1.1818 = 84.62%. Two composite estimates put Miami at 82%. At 82%, expected gross return per fictional €1 is 0.82 × 1.1818 = €0.9691: Miami can be strongly favoured to win and still fail the price test. The lesson is not “avoid favourites”; it is to compare every forecast with the exact price instead of confusing high win probability with sufficient compensation.
What Friday’s loss does—and does not—show
Friday’s lower published Knicks estimate was 76.89%, which still allowed a 23.11% loss probability. One loss therefore settles the €6 single but does not by itself prove that model right or wrong; calibration requires a much larger sample of forecasts recorded before events. It does show why a 71.83% price threshold was not a guarantee and why the remaining €44 was left unallocated.
Audit note and disclosure
No historical selection was rewritten today and no correction was required. Friday’s pending entry moved into the verified ledger only after the official score and recorded market were checked. The verified, unverified, pending and void categories above remain separate. The unaudited early archive—including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City Chiefs price from 20 September—is not included in the verified total.
18+ only. This is a fictional editorial simulation, not betting advice, a tip service or a record of real wagers. Odds can change and losses are possible. If gambling is not fun, stop. Full sourcing, calculation, settlement and correction rules are in the Daily50 methodology.
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