Sunday is a no-selection edition: €0.00 is staked and €50.00 remains unallocated. Exact prices were available for the NFL, NBA and NHL, but the best-supported candidates did not clear a robust probability-and-availability test. The card therefore records no fictional wager rather than turning a marginal model difference into a selection.
All event times are Europe/Dublin (GMT). Sources were opened through 05:58 on 15 November 2026; the event-specific odds pages below were stamped 05:00 GMT. Prices can move. This edition follows the site’s methodology: official fixture and availability sources, exact event-specific prices, item-level audit statuses and no carry-forward of the unaudited early archive.
Prior-edition settlement check
The Saturday edition staked €0.00 and left €50.00 unallocated. It created no selection, return, pending item or settlement event. Accordingly, today’s verified sample and profit/loss are unchanged: 49 settled singles, 26 wins and 23 losses; €411.00 stakes; €420.17 returns; net +€9.17; ROI 2.23%. This is a zero-change check, not a claim that an unmade bet won or lost.
Verified running record
The verified subset now contains 49 settled singles: 26 wins and 23 losses; €411.00 settled stakes; €420.17 returns; verified net +€9.17; ROI 2.23%. Arithmetic: €420.17 − €411.00 = €9.17, and €9.17 ÷ €411.00 = 2.2311%, shown as 2.23%. There are no pending selections in today’s edition. This audited subset starts on 9 October and excludes the unaudited early archive, including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City price from 20 September.
| Date | Selection | Stake | Odds | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | €9 | 1.74 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | €8 | 2.20 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 9 Oct | Iowa | €9 | 2.00 | Win | €18.00 |
| 10 Oct | Nebraska | €10 | 1.9091 | Win | €19.09 |
| 10 Oct | Missouri | €12 | 1.9434 | Win | €23.32 |
| 10 Oct | Pittsburgh Penguins | €8 | 2.26 | Win | €18.08 |
| 10 Oct | Cleveland Guardians | €12 | 1.725 | Win | €20.70 |
| 11 Oct | Hull match under | €9 | 1.80 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | €9 | 2.40 | Win | €21.60 |
| 11 Oct | Los Angeles Chargers | €6 | 1.6667 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | Washington Capitals | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 11 Oct | New York Rangers | €10 | 1.3922 | Win | €13.92 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Sabres | €10 | 1.9259 | Win | €19.26 |
| 12 Oct | Ottawa Senators | €10 | 2.12 | Win | €21.20 |
| 12 Oct | Buffalo Bills +3.5 | €10 | 1.8475 | Win | €18.47 |
| 13 Oct | FIU +2.5 | €10 | 2.00 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 13 Oct | New York Islanders | €8 | 1.4878 | Win | €11.90 |
| 13 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €12 | 1.7692 | Win | €21.23 |
| 14 Oct | Kennesaw State | €10 | 1.6494 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Montréal Canadiens | €8 | 2.12 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 14 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers | €8 | 2.50 | Win | €20.00 |
| 15 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays | €7 | 2.10 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Seattle Seahawks | €9 | 1.6849 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 15 Oct | Edmonton Oilers | €10 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Coastal Carolina moneyline | €8 | 1.9804 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 16 Oct | Edmonton Elks moneyline | €10 | 1.5102 | Win | €15.10 |
| 17 Oct | Michigan −6.5 | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 17 Oct | Golden State Valkyries moneyline | €8 | 1.6849 | Win | €13.48 |
| 18 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €12 | 1.7407 | Win | €20.89 |
| 18 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €8 | 1.8929 | Win | €15.14 |
| 20 Oct | Colorado Avalanche moneyline | €8 | 1.9091 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 20 Oct | San Antonio Spurs moneyline | €10 | 1.8403 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 22 Oct | Chicago Bears moneyline | €6 | 1.6452 | Win | €9.87 |
| 23 Oct | Boston Celtics moneyline | €8 | 1.7752 | Win | €14.20 |
| 23 Oct | Rays–Brewers over 6.5 runs | €8 | 1.9524 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 24 Oct | Arsenal moneyline | €6 | 1.4975 | Win | €8.99 |
| 24 Oct | Wisconsin moneyline | €8 | 2.35 | Win | €18.80 |
| 25 Oct | Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | €8 | 1.6369 | Win | €13.10 |
| 25 Oct | Manchester United moneyline, 90 min | €4 | 2.29 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Carolina Panthers moneyline | €7 | 1.6897 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 25 Oct | Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline | €8 | 1.9434 | Win | €15.55 |
| 26 Oct | New York Rangers moneyline | €8 | 1.7937 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Dallas Stars moneyline | €6 | 1.8333 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 27 Oct | Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | €10 | 1.7246 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 29 Oct | Boston Bruins moneyline | €6 | 1.9615 | Loss | €0.00 |
| 7 Nov | Utah Utes moneyline | €6 | 1.5917 | Win | €9.55 |
| 7 Nov | Denver Nuggets moneyline, including overtime | €6 | 1.4167 | Win | €8.50 |
| 8 Nov | Denver Broncos moneyline, including overtime | €6 | 1.7042 | Win | €10.23 |
| 13 Nov | New York Knicks moneyline, including overtime | €6 | 1.3922 | Loss | €0.00 |
| Verified total | €411 | — | 26–23 | €420.17 | |
Unverified entries
| Selection | Stake | Recorded price/result | Reason excluded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State +3.5 | €9 | 1.95 / Loss | Located evidence showed −108 (1.9259), not the recorded 1.95. |
| Atlanta Dream moneyline | €7 | 2.30 / Win | Exact contemporaneous 2.30 source has not been recovered. |
| Golden State Valkyries +4 | €8 | 1.93 / Win | Located evidence showed +4.5, not the recorded +4. |
Pending entries
None. Saturday published no selections, so no item moved from pending to settled today.
Void entries
None. Under the declared convention, void stakes would be returned and excluded from settled turnover; the verified ledger currently contains no void selection.
Today’s €50 allocation
| Category | Stake | Potential return |
|---|---|---|
| Verified straight selections | €0.00 | €0.00 |
| Unallocated fictional balance | €50.00 | — |
| Balance check | €0.00 + €50.00 = €50.00 | — |
NFL review: Detroit falls just short of its price
The official NFL Week 10 capsule confirms New England versus Detroit in Munich at 14:30 Sunday. It also gives Detroit the stronger record (6–2 to 5–4), scoring offence (27.8 to 23.4 points per game) and turnover margin (+3 to −11). The counterargument is material: New England’s total defence ranks better by the same capsule, allowing 328.6 yards per game against Detroit’s 355.0.
The event-specific odds page, observed at 05:00 GMT, quoted Detroit moneyline at BetMGM −145, decimal 1.6897. Break-even is 145 ÷ (145 + 100) = 59.18%. A current matchup model put Detroit at 58.8%, below that threshold. The official Friday injury report also lists three Patriots and three Lions out, with nine Patriots and two Lions questionable, including Rhamondre Stevenson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That is not a stable basis for lifting a sub-threshold estimate. No NFL selection.
NBA review: a favourable headline, an incomplete input
The official NBA schedule lists New York at Toronto at 23:00 Sunday. The event-specific odds page, observed at 05:00 GMT, quoted New York moneyline at Hard Rock Bet −180, decimal 1.5556, requiring 64.29% to break even. The feed’s event time is 23:10, ten minutes later than the league schedule, so the league time is used here and the discrepancy is recorded.
| Probability source | Knicks estimate | Relation to 64.29% |
|---|---|---|
| Bandwagon | 66% | 1.71 points above |
| PlayDecoded | 72% | 7.71 points above |
| DRatings | 40.9% | 23.39 points below |
The disagreement is too large to describe a measured edge. More importantly, the NBA’s official 2:00 p.m. ET report on 14 November marked both teams “not yet submitted” for this game. PlayDecoded’s own injury input was dated 13 November, so its 72% cannot substitute for a complete league report. No NBA selection.
NHL review: thresholds leave no room for goalie uncertainty
The NHL’s official game centres confirm Edmonton at Philadelphia at 00:30 Monday and Calgary at Anaheim at 01:00 Monday. The odds feed labels each game ten minutes later; official league times are used below.
| Event | Exact moneyline at 05:00 GMT | Probability evidence | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton at Philadelphia 00:30 Monday | Edmonton; 888sport −150; decimal 1.6667; threshold 60.00% | ProbaLab 55% | The published estimate is five points below the price threshold. No selection. |
| Calgary at Anaheim 01:00 Monday | Anaheim; 888sport −150; decimal 1.6667; threshold 60.00% | ProbaLab 60%; Prediction Lab consensus 60.5%, with components from 50.0% to 69.1% | One estimate only matches break-even and the other clears by 0.5 points while its components disagree. No selection. |
Both market prices demand 60%. Edmonton fails the published test directly. Anaheim’s headline estimates sit on the threshold and are especially sensitive to starting-goalie confirmation and line movement; a one-point probability revision would erase the apparent margin. That uncertainty is specific rather than generic, and it argues for retaining the balance.
Worked lesson: how a two-point revision changes the answer
Take the Knicks at decimal 1.5556. Using Bandwagon’s 66% estimate, expected gross return per fictional €1 would be 0.66 × 1.5556 = €1.0267, a nominal €0.0267 above stake before allowing for model error. If incomplete availability information lowers the estimate by only two points, the same calculation becomes 0.64 × 1.5556 = €0.9956, below stake. The break-even threshold is 64.29%, so a 1.71-point headline margin is not robust to an ordinary input revision. This is why “model above price” is a starting comparison, not sufficient evidence by itself.
Audit note and disclosure
No historical selection was rewritten and no correction was required today. Saturday produced no selection, so the verified, unverified, pending and void categories remain unchanged. The unaudited early archive—including the assumed 1.89 Kansas City Chiefs price from 20 September—is not included in the verified total.
18+ only. This is a fictional editorial simulation, not betting advice, a tip service or a record of real wagers. Odds can change and losses are possible. If gambling is not fun, stop. Full sourcing, calculation, settlement and correction rules are in the Daily50 methodology.
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